Past preferences informing future leaders for Indonesian 2024 general elections

Abstract The current research aims to bridge the gap in the literature by examining the attributes and preferences of potential political leaders who may receive endorsements from political parties in the upcoming 2024 general elections in Indonesia. Using a qualitative descriptive approach, the study focuses on exploring the identity, profession, and social status of potential candidates based on primary data obtained from online news sources. The study collects online news articles using the search keywords “pemilu 2019 dan 2024 di Indonesia” (“2019 and 2024 general elections in Indonesia”) and examines them to identify the commonalities among the potential leaders who may receive political party recommendations. The findings suggest that the preferences and attributes of potential leaders resemble those of the elected leaders endorsed by political parties in the 2019 general elections, specifically in terms of their profession and social status. Moreover, the research highlights the significance of gauging the public’s perspectives on prospective leaders or representatives by conducting interviews with active participants in the 2024 general election process.


PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT
In the forthcoming 2024 Indonesian general election, the selection of leadership candidates will be largely determined by political party recommendations. Public opinion is not a significant factor in the selection of leaders, as the interests of political parties take precedence in determining who receives the party's endorsement to represent them in the election. This study finds that political party preferences for leadership figures in the 2024 general election are not substantially different from those in the 2019 election. Additionally, the knowledge and experience gained by political parties in the 2019 election have served as a crucial foundation for identifying the traits of potential leaders who are supported by political parties to become leaders in 2024. Future research should concentrate on analyzing the active participation of the public in general elections, particularly with regard to their role in determining the selection of leaders.

Introduction
In Indonesia, political parties are likely to recommend candidate leaders or representatives in the 2024 general elections based on the characteristics of those elected in the 2019 general elections. As highlighted by Foroughi et al. (2019, p. 138), profession and social status are among the important criteria that political parties consider when selecting prospective leaders for political contests. Supporting this observation, Nabilah et al. (2022, p. 81) demonstrate that the leaders elected in 2019 came from popular professions and social statuses, such as celebrities who became members of the House of Representatives, community leaders who became governors, and religious figures who became regents. Furthermore, these professions and social statuses have also become the preferred criteria for political parties to recommend prospective leaders for the 2024 general elections. Although registration for the 2024 general elections has not yet officially opened, the media provides an important source of information on prospective leaders who may receive political party recommendations, which deserves analysis and reflection.
Over the past five years, scholarly discussions on political parties in general elections have centered on the presence of political parties and their complex functions (Amoako Addae & Meissner, 2021, p. 1;Fossati et al., 2020, p. 1;Hussain et al., 2018, p. 11). According to Fossati et al., the presence of political parties in general elections does not necessarily revolve around an ideological context. Furthermore, other research has explored the connection between political parties and anti-corruption attitudes (Borz, 2020, p. 912;Estrada & Bastida, 2023, p. 49;Sjafrina, 2019, p. 44). The latter assert that there is a high likelihood of corruption during the general election process, where political parties engage in vote buying and selling. Additionally, economic relations with political party attitudes have also been examined in several studies (Hidayaturrahman et al., 2022, p. 270;Langsaether et al., 2022, p. 966;Lindh & McCall, 2020, p. 281). Hidayaturrahman et al. argue that economic interests are one of the key factors that influence political party attitudes in selecting prospective leaders. These studies collectively demonstrate that the role of political parties in recommending prospective leaders or representatives in political contests is complex and context-dependent.
To understand the characteristics of potential candidates who may receive recommendations from political parties for the 2024 general elections in Indonesia, it is important to examine the role of political parties in suggesting leaders for political contests (Asdhie Kodiyat & Hakim Siagian, 2020, p. 63). Similarly, Grande et al. (2019Grande et al. ( , p. 1448) also underscore the importance of studying the role of political parties in general elections to determine the traits of potential candidates who could receive support from political parties. This study aims to address gaps in previous research by analyzing the preferences of political parties in suggesting candidate leaders for the 2024 general election in Indonesia.
This study aims to answer two key questions: (1) What are the attributes of leaders who were promoted and elected in the 2019 general elections in Indonesia? and (2) What are the preferences of political parties in suggesting candidate leaders for the 2024 general elections in Indonesia? The study posits that the profession and social status of leaders who were elected in 2019 will also shape the preferences of political parties in recommending candidate leaders in the upcoming 2024 general elections in Indonesia. This assertion is based on Nashir et al. (2019, p. 2) argument that political parties success in past general elections influences their political attitudes when suggesting potential leaders in future political contests.

General elections in Indonesia
The process of general elections is a crucial moment in determining a country's leader (Sloman, 2020, p. 35), and is a widely discussed topic in the public sphere, particularly regarding the capabilities and modalities of prospective leaders (Mas'udah, 2020, p. 37). Yi (2019, p. 1) defines general elections as a political participation process in which voters elect individuals or groups as political leaders. In Indonesia, general elections have been held since 1955 (Rannie, 2020, p. 247), with at least 11 elections having taken place to legitimize the democratic government and elect leaders. According to Wardhani (2018, p. 88), general elections are an important societal process for legitimizing elected leaders, and people have their own preferences and interests when choosing their candidates. Therefore, general election contests in Indonesia foster community engagement in advancing the country's democratic system.
According to Indonesian law, general elections are held every five years and involve the participation of citizens in selecting government officials at the national and local levels (Muzakkir et al., 2021, p. 55;Noviawati, 2019, p. 75). The country places a strong emphasis on principles such as direct voting, freedom of choice, and ethical conduct in order to ensure a fair and transparent election process (Kosasih, 2017, p. 37). This emphasis on democratic ideals is not unique to Indonesia, as Spitzer's (2020, p. 456) study of the 1928 US election between Herbert Hoover and Al Smith demonstrates. In this election, both candidates enjoyed strong party support due to their popularity and social standing, highlighting the importance of these factors in political contestation.

Preferences of leadership
Preferences play a crucial role in decision-making and assessing opportunities for selecting leaders, as it indicates a tendency towards certain choices based on satisfaction, pleasure, and fulfilling societal roles (Wuttke, 2020, p. 19). In the Indonesian political context, preferences not only identify which figures or parties are likely to become leaders but also reveal potential characteristics of future leaders (Asmiyanto et al., 2021, p. 1). These potential leaders are individuals who possess qualities that can make them eligible to be recommended or endorsed by political parties for democratic elections in executive and legislative institutions (Hermanto et al., 2020, p. 29). Additionally, an individual figure who has a high probability of being recommended by a dominant political party can shape people's preferences towards the leader in political contests (Ambroziak et al., 2022, p. 2). Preferences do not simply indicate choices but also reflect people's attitudes towards selecting leaders (Carroll & Nalepa, 2020, p. 37).
In the process of selecting political leaders, preferences are influenced by a combination of external and internal factors. Internal preferences are formed through a person or group's knowledge, experience, and trust in prospective leaders and the political parties that represent them (Melville-Rea, 2022, p. 2;Peveri, 2022, p. 850;Rohim & Wardana, 2019, p. 55). According to Wenzelburger andZohlnhöfer (2021, p. 1057), this trust and experience shape vote preferences, providing opportunities for prospective leaders to win political contests in general elections. On the other hand, external preferences are shaped by party ideology, dominant groups, education, and media distribution (Gries, 2022, p. 291;Koc-Michalska et al., 2021, p. 205). Acording to Jubba et al., education in particular plays a crucial role in forming people's preferences when choosing leaders in general election contests (2019:167).

Popular leaders
In the arena of general election political contests, popularity is a crucial factor that contributes to the selection of potential leaders (Baber et al., 2022, p. 1;Bjørnå, 2021, p. 4;Singh et al., 2020, p. 536). According to Langsaether et al. (2019, p. 2), a prospective leader's ability to co-opt preferences and secure support forms the basis of their "soft power" and contributes to their popularity. Additionally, Cavalcanti et al. (2018, p. 201) argue that popularity is also influenced by the political party that carries prospective leaders in general elections, and not just their own electability. One strategy adopted by prospective leaders to increase their popularity is the "normality" strategy, as described by Wood et al. (2016, p. 581). The strategy involves portraying simple attitudes and actions that align with societal norms to minimize negative connotations on the image of prospective leaders. This approach has been successful in increasing the popularity and electability of prospective leaders and their political parties in general elections (Shim, 2022(Shim, , p. 2153.
In many countries, popular leaders and political parties have succeeded in winning general elections. Malaysia is not an exception to this trend, as civil society organizations and actors/ actresses are also participating in the general election and using news and social media to increase their chances of being elected (Mohamed, 2019, p. 353;O'Connell, 2020O'Connell, , p. 1468). According to Chen (2003, p. 151), this phenomenon is typical in countries where the popularity and social status of prospective leaders still hold significant importance. Popularity has long been recognized as a strategy to influence people's preferences in choosing prospective leaders during general elections (Irawan, 2014(Irawan, , p. 1032. The success of popular leaders has implications for the elected leaders and policies in the country's democratic system (Sturgis & Jennings, 2020, p. 1). As Irawan (2014Irawan ( , p. 1032 notes, popular prospective leaders from different professions and statuses can take actions that are accepted by society and increase their electability.

Methodology
The present research was conducted in the context of Indonesia's political landscape, with an eye towards the upcoming general elections in 2024. Consequently, the focal point of this study is an exploration of the traits and inclinations of potential leaders who may be able to garner the backing of political parties in the forthcoming elections. This decision is motivated by three factors: (1) The insufficient attention paid to an all-encompassing examination of the characteristics and preferences of prospective leaders who stand a chance of receiving political party endorsements in Indonesia's 2024 general elections; (2) The need for a context-specific comprehension of the traits, professions, and social status of such leaders in order to discuss their inclinations; and (3) The potential influence of the traits of the leaders elected in the 2019 general elections on the preferences of political parties in selecting presidential candidates for 2024 in Indonesia.
This descriptive qualitative study utilizes primary and secondary data to examine the characteristics and preferences of potential leaders who may gain the support of political parties in Indonesia's upcoming 2024 general election. Primary data sources consist of excerpts from descriptive online news texts obtained through the analysis of 2,000 online news stories retrieved via a Google search of the keywords "pemilu 2019 dan 2024 di Indonesia" ("2019 and 2024 general elections in Indonesia") between 1 July 2022, and 10 September 2022. The researchers focused on news titles to identify and analyze online news. The process of reading the news titles yielded 785 texts on identity, 762 on professions, and 453 on the social status of leaders who were elected in the 2019 general election and whose characteristics and preferences may influence political parties' recommendations for future leaders. The study also utilizes secondary data sources, including books, websites, and journal articles relevant to the research focus.
In this study, data analysis was conducted following the method used by Fernando et al. (2023), which involved three distinct processes. The first step was data reduction, where data was reorganized systematically based on patterns identified from the collected data. The second process was data verification, which entailed summarizing thematically reduced data. The third step was data description, which involved presenting excerpts from verified online news texts that aligned with the research focus. Subsequently, an inductive analysis process was employed to interpret the data. Interpretation of the data was based on examining the forms, factors, and implications of the characteristics of leaders elected in 2019 on the preferences of political parties in recommending candidate leaders in 2024. These analytical techniques allowed the formulation of a conclusion.

Results
Indonesia's general election is a significant political occurrence that has garnered much attention, particularly in light of the characteristics of the elected leaders selected by political parties in 2019. The same characteristics that were present in the elected leaders in 2019 have now become the preferences of political parties in nominating and recommending prospective leaders for the 2024 general election, particularly with regard to profession and social status. These observations are supported by two primary findings.

Characteristics of leaders elected in 2019
The electoral contest of 2019 in Indonesia witnessed a notable trend whereby political parties displayed a strong proclivity towards nominees originating from the domains of arts and entertainment. Table 1 below provides evidence in support of this observation. Table 1 illustrates the notable presence of public figures from the entertainment industry who have been elected as representatives in the 2019 general elections in Indonesia, securing their positions in the national or regional People's Representative Council (DPR) with the support of major political parties, including PAN, PDI-P, PKB, and Golkar Party. Among these representatives are a comedian, singers, actors, a news presenter, and a preacher who have gained the endorsement of their respective political parties during the 2019 general election in Indonesia.
In Table 2, it can be observed that certain elected representatives supported by political parties in the 2019 general election in Indonesia have high social status based on their political affiliations. Table 2 illustrates that a considerable proportion of political candidates elected in the 2019 general elections in Indonesia hailed from privileged social backgrounds. Among the elected officials were the spouse of a former regent, the son of the Indonesian President, the nephew of a government minister, and the descendant of a national hero. These individuals secured crucial positions such as governor, mayor, regent, and members of the People's Representative Council (DPR RI). Furthermore, major Indonesian political parties, including Golkar Party, NasDem Party, Hanura Party, PDI-P, and Gerindra Party, supported these candidates with high-class social status in the 2019 general election.

Preference for future leaders in 2024
The preferences of prospective leaders who have the potential to get recommendations from political parties in the 2024 general elections in Indonesia are similar in characteristics to the elected leaders promoted by political parties in 2019 by profession. Professions such as artists and entertainers are professions of prospective leaders who have the potential to get recommendations from political parties in the 2024 general elections in Indonesia. This context can be seen in Table 3 below.
The professional backgrounds of potential political leaders who may receive endorsements from political parties for the 2024 general election in Indonesia share similarities with those of the leaders elected in the 2019 general election, according to Table 3. Professions such as comedians, singers, actors, presenters, and preachers have the potential to receive recommendations from political parties as possible leaders in the 2024 general election in Indonesia. Political parties have projected key positions such as president, DPR RI member, governor, and regent to promising leaders in these professions for the upcoming election. Major political parties in Indonesia, namely PAN, PSI, PKS, and Perindo Party, have expressed their support or endorsement for these potential leaders.
Table 4 below illustrates that the social status of potential leaders who could receive political party endorsements in the 2024 general elections in Indonesia is similar to that of the elected leaders in the 2019 general elections, in addition to the criterion of professions.

Source. Online news uploaded via Google.
Galuh Larasati et al., Cogent Social Sciences (2023) Table 4 demonstrates that there is a similarity in the social status of prospective political leaders who may receive endorsements from political parties for the 2024 general election in Indonesia, as compared to the elected leaders in the previous 2019 general election. Candidates with a familial or ancestral connection to notable officials or national heroes are more likely to receive political party support for leadership positions such as governor, mayor, vice president, or president in the upcoming general election. Moreover, potential leaders with high social status have the potential to receive recommendations and support from major political parties in Indonesia, such as Golkar Party, PSI, PDI-P, Ummat Party, and the Democratic Party.

Discussion
The research findings indicate that the characteristics of potential leaders who may receive political party recommendations in the upcoming 2024 general elections in Indonesia are similar to those of the leaders elected in the 2019 general elections, in terms of both their profession and social status. Chen (2003, p. 151) notes that the phenomenon of electing popular leaders in general elections is common in countries where the political landscape is still based on the popularity, profession, and identity of prospective leaders. Consequently, besides professions such as artists, singers, comedians, and lawyers, the social status of being related to or a family member of officials also influences the emergence of prospective leaders in the 2024 general election. The phenomenon of electing globally popular leaders with high social status has long-standing implications for determining potential leaders in future democratic elections, as noted by Sturgis and Jennings (2020, p. 1).
The remarkable frequency of electing popular leaders based on their professional and social status in the 2019 general elections in Indonesia suggests that the country's political system and public voting patterns are still strongly influenced by pragmatic and nepotistic factors. Consequently, political parties' selection and nomination of prospective leaders often fail to take into account the candidates' competence and abilities. Yadav and Fidalgo (2022, p. 380) corroborate this observation by arguing that such an outcome often results from undemocratic practices within democratic systems in developing countries. In this context, political parties might prioritize the nomination of a leader candidate based on their popularity, profession, and social status instead of selecting leaders based on the skill sets and qualities required by the community (Fitriyah, 2020, p. 5 (Fifi, 2023).
Source. Online news uploaded via Google.
Galuh Larasati et al., Cogent Social Sciences (2023)  In the context of the 2019 general elections in Indonesia, political parties have predominantly relied on popularity, profession, and social status to elect leaders. These factors also appear to be influencing the preferences of prospective leaders who may receive political party recommendations for the upcoming 2024 general elections. This tendency towards nepotism and pragmatism in the political system has been noted by Abdullah et al. (2019, p. 493) as a contributing factor to the high level of public apathy. Putnam (2021) further highlights the importance of both the public and politicians having a clear understanding of what constitutes an ideal leader, in order to ensure that elected leaders are able to meet the expectations of the community. Jubba et al. (2019, p. 167) argue that it is the responsibility of society and politicians to systematically choose and determine the preferences of prospective leaders for general elections, with a focus on the interests of both political parties and society both now and in the future.
The first academic inquiry into the role of political parties in political contests examined the 1928 United States general election between Herbert Hoover and Al Smith, who were both popular and socially prominent candidates, with strong support from political parties (Spitzer, 2020, p. 456). However, the comprehensive analysis of the implications of electing leaders based on their popularity, profession, and social status on the preferences of political parties in future political contests is still limited. Sampugnaro et al. (2021:46) note that it is critical to explore the impact of electing leaders based on these factors on the preferences for ideal candidate leaders in future elections, given that this context has predominantly reshaped the standardization of ideal candidate leaders in democratic contests. Therefore, a thorough study examining the implications of electing leaders based on their popularity, profession, and social status on political parties' preferences for future ideal leaders in democratic contests is imperative.
Drawing from previous discussions on the high rate of electing leaders based on popularity, profession, and social status in the 2019 general elections in Indonesia, it is evident that political parties need to have a clear understanding of the ideal leader figure to ensure that recommended candidate leaders meet the necessary requirements for the 2024 general election. This is in contrast to the situation in 2019, where political parties often focused on the profession and social status of their chosen leaders. Consequently, political parties and society must collaborate to nominate and select prospective leaders based on the needs and interests of the community, with the aim of standardizing ideal candidate leaders in future democratic political contestation. This assertion highlights the critical role of political parties and society in determining the standardization of ideal candidate leaders in the electoral process.

Conclusion
According to this study, the characteristics of prospective leaders who have the potential to receive recommendations from political parties in the 2024 general election in Indonesia are similar to the elected leaders carried by political parties in 2019, in terms of their profession and social status. This similarity suggests that the standards for ideal leaders in Indonesian politics and society are heavily influenced by professional popularity and social status. Additionally, the study reveals an attitude and trend among political parties and society towards the conception of ideal leaders. This finding highlights the need for a better understanding of the qualities and attributes that make a good leader, beyond popularity and social status.
Previous online media coverage has discussed the preferences of prospective leaders who may receive recommendations from political parties in the 2024 general election in Indonesia. However, these preferences have not been comprehensively formulated in previous studies. This study not only describes the characteristics of leaders who may receive political party recommendations in the 2024 general election but also reveals that their preferences are influenced by the experiences of political parties and society in winning political contests in the past.
The current study has certain limitations in terms of data collection, as it relies solely on the analysis of online news sources that report on the identity, profession, and social status of potential leaders who may receive recommendations from political parties in the 2024 general elections in Indonesia. However, these limitations can serve as a starting point for future research, especially those studies that aim to explore and examine the public's views and behaviors in selecting candidates for political contests, which can be done by conducting interviews with active voters during the 2024 general elections in Indonesia. By doing so, a more comprehensive understanding of the preferences of prospective leaders in political contests can be obtained.