Using systems-thinking approaches to evaluate impacts to essential services in fragile contexts: a case study on Venezuela

ABSTRACT The global risk landscape is evolving, leading to more protracted and complex crises. The eventual degradation of critical infrastructure in such contexts often results in insufficient access to essential services and heightened risks of public health crises. To navigate complex protracted crises, engineering decision-makers can use systems-thinking approaches to develop a better understanding of the systems they are working in. This paper presents a qualitative systems mapping approach and applies it to a case study in Venezuela to assess how electricity and water services are being impacted by the ongoing political and economic crisis. The analysis uses the systems map to explore the current state of the sectors, as well as the root causes, cascading effects, and coping mechanisms causing or resulting from the current state. The insights drawn from the case analysis demonstrates how systems mapping can reveal alternative interventions that are rooted in a holistic understanding of a problem rather than opting for conventional, sector-based solutions that do not necessarily reflect the specific contextual challenges. For example, in this case, it became apparent that engineering decision-makers need to not only address issues of electricity continuity, but also consider power quality to ensure the electricity supply is usable. This work is part of a Special Issue on Systems Perspectives: Clarity through Examples (see Dias 2023).


Introduction
The global risk landscape is evolving, leading to more protracted and complex crises.The intersection of multiple threats, be it from conflict, climate risks, or socioeconomic factors, is magnifying vulnerabilities and eroding people's ability to cope.This has resulted in a recent massive increase in the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance, from 199 million in 2018, to over 406 million in 2022, with 83% of this population living in countries experiencing a protracted crisis (i.e. a crisis lasting five years or more) (Development Initiatives, 2023).In such protracted crises, the weakening of state capacity, additional strain on services, and chronic underinvestment leads to the eventual degradation of critical infrastructure, resulting in insufficient and unreliable access to essential services and heightened risks of a public health crisis (ICRC 2015).This dynamic has been exemplified in several countries facing protracted crises, including Yemen, Venezuela, Syria, and Iraq, where the collapse in public health infrastructure is leading to outbreaks of preventable infectious diseases, such as measles, cholera, and tuberculosis (Blackburn, Lenze, and Casey 2020;Quinn et al. 2017).
Urban infrastructure systems and the delivery of essential services are increasingly complex and interconnected in any context; however, in situations of protracted crisis where there are many additional factors and uncertainties to consider, this degree of complexity is intensified.This creates a particularly challenging environment for engineering decision makers to be able to identify the root causes of a problem and develop the most strategic and effective solutions.
Traditional engineering decision-making is often critiqued for adopting reductionist approaches to problem solving, where complex problems are broken down into simpler, smaller components.This approach ignores important interactions between components, which may result in unintended consequences.Similarly, engineers tend to focus more on technical aspects of a problem, overlooking the broader context in which the problem is situated (i.e.social, environmental, political) (Dugan et al. 2022).As a result, engineers can often jump too quickly into developing solutions to problems that have not been clearly or holistically defined.This may result in spending time and resources solving the wrong part of a problem or implementing a solution that has negative consequences to other parts of the system (Garza Morales, Nizamis, and Bonnema 2023).In response to these critiques, many authors suggest that engineers first need to develop a more holistic understanding and definition of a problem within its specific context, before moving to the problem-solving and decision-making stages (Downey 2005;Garza Morales, Nizamis, and Bonnema 2023;Lund 2020).One way for engineers to achieve a more holistic and nuanced problem definition in complex contexts is by adopting a systems-thinking approach.
Systems-thinking facilitates an understanding of how a system functions to achieve a purpose and how it may behave over time (Meadows 2009).In complex crises, it can help to identify interrelationships between infrastructure systems and influences from their wider context, as well as to identify the root causes of systemic challenges and leverage points for potential interventions (Blair et al. 2021;Stroh 2015).Given the increasing magnitude of people effected by protracted crises and the complexity associated with the delivery of essential services in such contexts, this approach can be valuable for engineers to better understand the systems they are working in to support more strategic decisionmaking for resilience-building interventions.
This research demonstrates the use of a systems-thinking approach to support decision-making in situations of protracted crisis.By developing a better understanding of how essential services are functioning and how they are influenced by external factors (i.e.politics, society, economy, insecurity), it can enable engineers to make more informed, evidence-based decisions.A qualitative systems mapping methodology is developed in this research and is applied to a case study in Venezuela, a context which has been facing a protracted political and economic crisis resulting in severe humanitarian consequences.This case study focuses specifically on the supply of water and electricity, while still considering the interdependencies and interactions with other services and sectors.
The contribution of this paper is two-fold: (1) to demonstrate how a systems mapping approach can be used to analyse essential services in protracted crises; and (2) to explore the value of a systems mapping approach for decision-making in complex contexts.
This paper starts by presenting some of the key motivations for this research in relation to existing literature in Section 2. Section 3 discusses the methodology used to develop the systems maps in Venezuela and the sectoral analyses that subsequently emerged.Section 4 demonstrates a case analysis for Venezuela, presenting the results of analyses on the electricity and water sectors.Section 5 discusses the value of the systems mapping approach, while Section 6 draws conclusions and identifies opportunities for future work.

Essential services in protracted crises
Protracted urban crises are particularly challenging for local governments and humanitarian actors to navigate, as there are complex, dynamic interactions and interdependencies between various urban systems and essential services (Earle 2016).In recognition of these challenges, there have been some recent efforts to advance thinking and research in this area.Ramalingam et al. (2008) are among some of the earlier authors to introduce concepts of complexity science in relation to humanitarian contexts.These concepts have slowly been adopted into the thinking of researchers and humanitarian actors working with essential services in protracted crises, who have added to the discourse (Al-Saidi, Roach, and Al-Saeedi 2020;Campbell 2016;ICRC 2015;Tillet et al. 2020;UNICEF 2019b).More recently, some new tools and approaches have been developed to help navigate complex urban contexts, including UNICEF's WASH Bottleneck Analysis Tool (UNICEF 2020), MIT/USAID's Data-Layered Causal Loop Diagram (Blair et al. 2021), IRC's Urban Context Analysis Toolkit (IRC 2017), and JIPS's Urban Profiling approach (JIPS 2019).While these tools and approaches provide a valuable grounding for working in complex, urban environments, some are more suited to international development contexts rather than protracted crises, while others are more linearly structured and do not capture the interconnectedness of urban systems.Therefore, the systems-thinking approach developed in this research aims to address this gap.

Availability of essential services
In order to analyse how essential services are impacted by protracted crises, it is necessary to first define what is meant by 'availability' of services.While there is no commonly agreed definition of the availability of a service, several authors suggest similar dimensions, though using different terminology or categorisation (Levesque, Harris, and Russell 2013;UNICEF 2019a;Young 2021).This research adopts the use of five dimensions to assess availability: accessibility (i.e.physical access), quality (i.e.meeting standards), quantity (i.e.enough to meet needs), reliability (i.e.consistency of performance), and affordability (i.e.within financial means).There can be overlap in these terms (e.g.physical access is likely required to meet quantity requirements), but, assessing each of these as distinct dimensions can facilitate a holistic and targeted understanding of the availability of an essential service.

A systems mapping approach
Systems mapping is a practical application of systems-thinking and was adopted as the main method in this research.Systems maps (also known as Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)) are a visual representation of how a system is working.They qualitatively depict a system's elements (i.e. the key components of a systemboth physical and non-physical) and the connections between elements (i.e.relationships such as causality or influence).
Systems mapping is a useful tool in contexts that are characterised by fragmented and data-poor environments (such as protracted crises) as they are based on available qualitative data rather than requiring access to reliable quantitative data (Blair et al. 2021;MIT & GW 2021a).Using a Participatory Systems Mapping approach, qualitative data is collected by engaging with the people and stakeholders who are 'in' the system itself and whose actions and activities influence or are influenced by other elements in the system (Russell et al. 2021).Produced in this way, a systems map is intersubjective, representing the beliefs and perspectives of the stakeholders (Barbrook-Johnson and Penn 2021), though parts of the map can also be validated by publicly available literature.The systems mapping activities used in this research were designed and adapted from the work of several authors (Matti et al. 2020;MIT & GW 2021a;Omidyar Group 2017;Penn and Barbrook-Johnson 2021;2022;Russell et al. 2021).

Urban environmentsa system-of-systems
Cities and urban environments are becoming increasingly complex, as evolving technological and social advancements are resulting in ever more intertwined, interconnected, and interdependent subsystems (Matti et al. 2020).A system-of-systems map can be a useful representation of an urban environment, as it recognises that there are dynamic interactions between various urban infrastructure systems (i.e.water supply, wastewater, power, telecommunications, transportation, etc.) as well as with broader socio-economic systems (e.g. the economy, society, governance, local environment, etc.) (Thacker, Pant, and Hall 2017).Recognising the value of examining interactions between urban systems, the UK National Infrastructure Commission undertook a system-of-systems approach to inform decision-making and planning for the built environment (NIC & Arup 2020).Similarly, this research adopts a system-of-systems approach to represent the interconnectedness of essential services in Venezuela.

Methodology
To answer the research question, 'how are urban infrastructure systems and essential services impacted by situations of protracted crisis?', an action research strategy was adopted by developing and applying a systems-thinking approach to a case study in Venezuela.Figure 1 provides an overview of the steps taken during this research.

Desk review
A preliminary desk review was conducted to examine publicly available documentation on the crisis in Venezuela, including academic and grey literature and news articles.Documentation was identified by searching keywords for any of the sectors being explored, including water, wastewater, electricity, transportation, solid waste management, telecommunications, health, environment, industry, economy, politics, and society.
Qualitative data analysis techniques, including grounded theory analysis and thematic analysis, were used to review the documentation.This analysis allowed for the preliminary identification of elements (i.e.attributes or components of a system) and connections (i.e.relationships between elements) from which a first draft of a systems map was developed.Further detail regarding the map elaboration is described in Section 4.3.
The documentation review revealed data gaps, which helped to inform interview questions and identify stakeholders for the data collection phase.For example, most documentation presented information at a national scale, but did not have details specific to certain regions.There was also a limited degree of back-tracing of the causes of problems, often citing general challenges rather than understanding the root causes of those challenges.

Data collection
During eight weeks of on-ground fieldwork in Venezuela from September to October 2022, the researcher engaged with local stakeholders to understand how the different essential services were operating and to identify challenges and factors that influenced the systems' performance.A total of 84 interviews, 2 participatory workshops, and 34 site visits were conducted during the fieldwork.The stakeholders represent a range of perspectives, and include service providers, end-users, staff from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and other humanitarian agencies whose work relates to essential services (see Figure 2 below).However, as anticipated for this context, there was an under-representation of stakeholders from the government, due to political challenges and a lack of pre-established governmental contacts.This not only presents a challenge for conducting this research, but also more widely for humanitarian operations in the region.
The interviews were semi-structured, guided by a list of themes, and were typically between 45 and 90 minutes in length depending on the time available and relevance of the stakeholder.Many interviews took place on-location and were therefore complemented by site visits and observations of the associated infrastructure or facility.During two inter-disciplinary workshops, participants were divided into groups and assigned an essential service for which they undertook steps to develop a systems map (i.e.water, electricity, transportation).The groups were instructed to identify and map out the relationships and interdependencies between their service and other services and sectors.

Map elaboration
Similar to the documentation review, qualitative data analysis techniques were used to analyse the primary data collected from the fieldwork in Venezuela as well as secondary data from the ongoing documentation review.During this analysis, additional elements and connections were identified, and the systems map was further refined.The resulting system-of-systems map includes over 530 elements and 1000 connections; although, as a 'living' document, this is evolving.The map is presented in Figure 3 below to give a sense of the scale and structure, though is not meant to be readable in this format.

Map features
This research aims to build on traditional systems mapping and causal loop diagram methods, by incorporating additional functions and features, as discussed below: 3.4.1.Donut structure Systems maps are typically focused around a 'core', which is often a singular purpose or outcome of the system.In this case, given that the map is a system-of-systems, there are multiple outcomes (i.e. the availability of each of the essential services).Therefore, each system is clustered, and each cluster is placed around the outside of a circle (in the shape of a donut) with numerous connections spanning across the middle from system to system.

Functionality and trend status
The systems maps developed in this research build on the 'data-layered CLD' trialled by the MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab, by evaluating the functionality and trend status of the elements (MIT & GW 2021a;2021b).In practice, this evaluation is translated into a traffic-light colour coding system (green, yellow, and red), with the inner circle colour representing the functionality (high, medium, low) and the outer ring representing the trend (improving, stagnant, worsening) (see Figure 4).Qualitative data can be used to provide evidence for this evaluation when available; however, not every element needs to have a statusthe data layer is meant to augment the analysis of the maps by integrating data that is readily available.Observing the functionality of various elements throughout the system helps to assess the overall 'health' of the system, and to identify which factors are influencing, enabling, or hindering a system outcome (Gralla 2021;Russell et al. 2021).

Scale and interactivity
Considering the system-of-systems approach, in order to capture enough detail across several sectors, the systems map becomes large and complex.This type of large-scale systems map is not meant to be used as a stand-alone static figureit would be very difficult to extract meaning from it in this way.Instead, this type of systems map is meant to be interactive and can be seen more as a cause and influence database.Various functionalities are built into the systems mapping platform to facilitate analyses by filtering and formatting based on different categorizations and producing sub-maps.While the details of how this database can be used is not included in the scope of this paper, the key evidence extracted from the map is summarised in Tables 1-4 of Section 4.

Sectoral analyses
Once the system-of-systems map was developed, it was possible to produce a series of analyses that each focused on a specific sector or theme.In this way, the map can be used to view the system from different angles to answer a specific question.For example, in this research, the Venezuela systems map was used to produce analyses on essential services including electricity, water, and mobility, as well as cross-cutting environmental issues and regional dynamics.This paper discusses the results of the electricity and water sectoral analyses in detail.
Using the systems maps to identify relationships and dynamics, the sectoral analyses aim to describe the sector in four stages (hereafter referred to as the 4Cs Analysis): 1.The current state of the sector. 2. The root causes of problems facing the sector. 3. Cascading effects resulting from the current state of the sector's performance (across various sectors).4. Coping mechanisms used by various stakeholders to fill any gaps left by the sector for the provision of services.
As depicted in Figure 5, some of the cascading effects and coping mechanisms may feedback to exasperate the causes.
These sectoral analyses can be used to understand how essential services are being impacted from the situation of protracted crisis and can inform planning and strategy development for potential interventions to improve the delivery of essential services in each sector.

Case analysis
This section first provides an overview of the context in Venezuela and then presents the results of the sectoral analyses for electricity and water services, demonstrating how these essential services are being impacted by the situation of protracted crisis.For each stage of the sectoral analysis, a sub-map is produced from the overall system-of-systems map to provide a more focused view.While the sub-maps provide an option to view the systems map in a more focused, structured format, attempting to linearise a non-linear systems map does have its limitations in terms of representing feedback loops between elements in different sub-maps and sometimes repeating elements in more than one sub-map.As well, it should be acknowledged that these sub-maps are best viewed on a screen where the reader can zoom in.
During each stage of these sectoral analyses, two example narratives are presented that aim to demonstrate how the systems map can be used to extract a nuanced, holistic understanding of electricity and water services.While only one aspect of each system is discussed in detail, the Figures and Tables present the full systems analysis.

Overview of the context
Venezuela is considered as a context of protracted fragility and violence.Due to years of political instability and poor governance, Venezuela's economy has contracted by over two thirds since 2013, resulting in the largest migration seen in Latin American history (Hidalgo, Carella, and Khoudour 2021).Over 7 million people have left Venezuela since 2014 due to hyperinflation, growing levels of violence, and shortages of food (Reid 2022).This reduction of technical and managerial capacity, combined with financial constraints related to corruption and international sanctions, has resulted in the degradation of infrastructure and unreliable access to essential services.Electricity shortages, water supply and quality issues, abandoned public transportation systems, and a collapsed health system are aggravating the situation of social unrest, organised crime, migration, and severe public health consequences (Penfold and Lowenthal Fellow 2021).
Venezuela was selected as a case study for this research based on the ICRC's operational interest to develop systems-based approaches to define a more strategic response to the complex crisis.During the fieldwork, three main geographic areas were prioritised for data collection: the barrios in Caracas, the Venezuela-Colombia border, and the Orinoco Mining Arc.These are the areas where there are the highest rates of insecurity and humanitarian needs which are priority areas for the ICRC.The analysis evaluated the different dynamics in each region, while also identifying common themes and challenges across all regions.

Current state of the sector
The current state of the sector analyses the availability of electricity and water services provided by the formal, public sector (informal and private sector services are included in the analysis of coping mechanisms in Section 4.4).A sub-map is produced to depict the current state of electricity and water services, with the scope limited only to internal sectoral elements.

Electricity
At a national scale, the current state of public electricity supply services in Venezuela is very poor and its rate of degradation has accelerated since the onset of the crisis (see the sub-map in Figure 6).However, there is a lot of regional disparity, with Caracas benefiting from a greater availability of public electricity services than the rest of the country.
To demonstrate the nuanced understanding that can be extracted from this systems map, consider the dimension, quality of public electricity supply.There are significant power quality issues, including frequent voltage surges, low voltage levels, and variations in frequency (Plan Pais 2020b).By back tracing the pathways from this element, we can see how quality is being influenced (see Figure 7 below).Firstly, the poor performance of the electricity transmission lines and substations means that voltage and frequency fluctuations are not being filtered or stabilised before electricity is delivered to the end users.The causes for this poor performance are explored in Section 4.3.Secondly, the high rates of illegal connections are causing an imbalance and overloading of lowvoltage powerlines.This rate of theft is partly influenced by the insufficient coverage of public electricity services but is also influenced by other causes that are depicted in Figure 10.All five dimensions of availability are explored in Table 1.

Water
As shown in Figure 8, the current state of public water supply services at a national scale is poor, though with regional variation.The overall availability of public water supply is low and has been on a worsening trend over recent yearsin 2022, roughly only 28% of the population was receiving a reliable water supply through the piped network (OVSP 2022).
Again, we will examine the dimension, quality of public water supply, as an example to demonstrate the utility of the systems map (see Figure 9).Most public water supplies delivered to communities in Venezuela do not reach drinking water standards (Rendon, Schneider, and Kohan 2019).The quality of water is influenced by four main factors: the contamination of water resources; the unreliable operations of water treatment plants; the unreliable supply of chemicals for water treatment; and the contamination   of water in the distribution network due to pipe leakages (Muggah, Brasil, and Margolis 2022).The causes for each of these are discussed in Section 4.3.All five dimensions of availability are explored in Table 2.

Root causes
This stage of the analysis explores the root causes of the problems facing the electricity and water sectors.By understanding the root causes, it can inform more strategic and longer-term responses rather than only addressing the symptoms of a problem.As CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS depicted in Figure 10, there are eleven common causes that effect both the electricity and water sectors, as well as three sector-specific causes.These root causes have many interconnections between themselves as well as with other contextual factors, which make it challenging to view them in isolation.By viewing them holistically, it gives a better understanding of how the system works as a whole and how a change in one part of the system may affect other parts of the system.Continuing the previous example examining the quality of public electricity supply, we can trace the pathways in the systems map to understand various causes that lead to the poor performance of electricity transmission lines (see Figure 11).One of the main root causes is the lack of infrastructure maintenance and development, which itself is a result of several other interrelated root causes (see Figure 10).This example focuses on how a lack of infrastructure maintenance, or more specifically, a lack of vegetation maintenance underneath electricity transmission lines, contributes to power quality issues via   three different causal pathways.Firstly, during storm events, strong winds and overgrown vegetation cause interference with transmission lines resulting in voltage surges and other power quality issues.This situation is exacerbated by climate change, which is increasing the frequency and severity of these storm events (World Bank 2022).Secondly, climate change is also resulting in increasing temperatures and more frequent forest fires across Venezuela (GFW 2022).Due to the overgrown vegetation, these forest fires cause further damage to the transmission lines.Thirdly, the overgrown vegetation impedes technicians' access to the transmission lines to carry out maintenance and repairs.This example demonstrates how various system interactions with one element (i.e.maintenance of vegetation) can contribute to the poor performance of the transmission lines via different causal pathways (Figure 11).
Similarly, with regards to the quality of public water supply, three causal pathways can be traced to understand how the quality of water is being affected (see Figure 12).Firstly, water resources are primarily contaminated by three sources: the discharge of untreated wastewater due to the lack of functioning wastewater treatment plants; informal dumping of solid waste due to unreliable solid waste services; and mercury and cyanide contamination of rivers due to increasing illegal gold mining activities.Secondly, the unreliable and insufficient public electricity supply and lack of back-up power supplies results in insufficient operations of water treatment plants.This is exacerbated by the unreliable supply of chemicals for water treatment due to mobility challenges impacting supply chains.Thirdly, the poor performance of water infrastructure, specifically leakages in the water distribution network, is a result of a lack of maintenance and development of water infrastructure.All three causal pathways contribute to the poor quality of water supply delivered to the end users.In this case, the causal pathways presented only describe two or three degrees of back tracing.A more in-depth understanding of the interactions between these root causes can be revealed by analysing the systems map in Figure 10.All 14 root causes are presented in Table 3.

Cascading effects and coping mechanisms
This next analysis shifts attention to the downstream consequences that result from insufficient electricity and water supplies.Due to the interconnectedness between urban systems, the poor performance of electricity and water sectors cause cascading effects across many other sectors, as demonstrated by Figure 13 and Table 4.By tracing these cascading effects, it can help to identify the series of indirect relationships that may link two seemingly unrelated factors.This can help to identify patterns and feedback loops, unintended consequences, and vulnerabilities.
To bridge the gap between the needs of the population and the insufficient public services, several coping mechanisms are adopted by various stakeholders (i.e.households, private sector, service providers, government), and are also presented in the sub-map in Figure 13.Some of these coping mechanisms are interrelated with the cascading effects.
In this case, we can trace cascading effect pathways forwards to understand how the quality of public electricity impacts various other sectors (see Figure 14).Large voltage surges cause significant damage to electrical appliances and equipment, which can be expensive or unavailable to replace due to the embargoes on Venezuela.This has had      impacts to industrial and commercial sectors, resulting in a decline in economic productivity.It has also impacted the health sector, resulting in the reduced provision of certain health services.Alternatively, low voltage levels prevent the functionality of equipment that cannot operate below certain voltage thresholds.In this case, water pumps are unable to operate which reduces the availability of water supply.Two main coping mechanisms are used by the population to mitigate against these effects.Firstly, power protection devices are installed to prevent damage to appliances from voltage surges; however, they often need to be replaced and are not affordable or available to everyone.Secondly, some people recognise the signs of a potential upcoming voltage surge (i.e.light flickering) and simply unplug their appliances in anticipation of the surge.
With regards to the quality of public water supply, there is one main cascading effect pathway that can be traced (see Figure 15).The consumption of poor-quality drinking water may lead to the prevalence of water-borne illnesses and preventable diseases, such as diarrhoea and typhoid, which reduce the overall health and wellbeing of a population.Three main coping mechanisms are used to mitigate these effects.Firstly, private drinking water vendors have set-up businesses in which they invest in equipment that can provide additional treatment of the public water supply and sell drinking water to customers.Secondly, for the minority who can afford it, commercial bottled drinking water can be purchased.Thirdly, few households are starting to adopt simple water treatment strategies at home to improve water quality.The descriptions of all the cascading effects on various sectors is included in Table 4.
By using the systems maps to reveal interactions and pathways, the 4Cs analysis demonstrates how electricity and water services are being impacted by the situation of protracted insecurity in Venezuela, and how the lack of availability of these services results in cascading effects across other sectors.

Value of systems mapping
This research demonstrates how systems mapping can be used to develop insights about essential services in protracted crises, while also making valuable contributions to systems-thinking approaches for decision-making in complex contexts.

Insights drawn from the systems mapping approach
By viewing essential services and their interrelations holistically, systems mapping helps to identify feedback loops and root causes, as well as to recognise the interconnectedness of these root causes.This enables a more complete understanding of a problem and the identification of contextually appropriate, effective interventions.

Identifying feedback loops and understanding root causes of a problem
Feedback loops may reinforce or resist a system behaviour in an unwanted way and are important to be aware of when planning an intervention.In some cases, feedback loops may result from a series of indirect, convoluted relationships that can be difficult to trace, especially when those relationships cross between sectors.Systems mapping helps to identify these series of relationships to develop an understanding of system behaviour and recognise root causes of a problem.For example, consider the issue of electricity blackouts in Venezuela.A typical response may be to install back-up generators at a critical facility.Possibly, engineers may even decide to develop additional electricity generation capacity due to the apparent shortages, which not only requires significant capital, but also sustained local capacity to maintain.Both interventions target the symptom of the problem (i.e.insufficient electricity supply), or assume that the root cause is because there is a lack of installed generation capacity.However, in reality, there is sufficient installed generation capacity in Venezuela, so interventions should also target the problems that are reducing the available capacity.In this case, one of the root causes is entangled in a complex feedback loop, as depicted in Figure 16: In this case, the driver behind the reduction in hydroelectricity production is a lack of economic livelihoods, which is causing people to engage in illegal gold mining activities out of financial necessity.The gold mining activities cause high levels of sediment in the rivers upstream of the hydropower plants, which subsequently results in damage to the hydroelectric turbines.Considering the magnitude of hydroelectric production in these dams (80% of the Venezuela's national electricity supply), small-scale interventions to provide back-up supplies at a facility level are insignificant in comparison to the lost potential electricity from the hydropower plants.Therefore, interventions that aim to address the root causes of the problem could leverage much greater impact, such as increasing alternative economic opportunities to reduce the rate of migration to the Orinoco Mining Arc or implementing upstream sediment trapping before the hydroelectric dams (IHA n.d.).
This example demonstrates how systems mapping can help to identify interventions that address root causes of problems, by first recognising feedback loops and developing an understanding of system behaviour.

Recognising the interconnectedness of root causes
Systems mapping helps to visualise how interconnected root causes of a problem may be.If these root causes are viewed and targeted in isolation, the intended system change may be blocked by other critical barriers.A systems view may reveal how an intervention needs to tackle multiple parts of a system at the same time.For example, considering the sub-map of root causes in Figure 10, providing a maintenance budget alone would likely not result in adequate infrastructure maintenance.The other interdependent root causes, including a lack of technical capacity, poor governance, access constraints, and a lack of available materials, still need to be considered to enable maintenance activities to take place.
By recognising the interconnections between these root causes, it ensures interventions are holistically designed and prioritised to tackle the most critical parts of the system.
5.1.3.Developing a more complete understanding of a problem and identifying more effective interdisciplinary interventions Systems mapping helps to develop a more holistic view of a problem by approaching it from various angles and considering influences from various sectors.This can prompt new lines of questioning and analysis that enable a more complete, interdisciplinary problem definition.For example, considering again the issue of electricity supply, most reporting in Venezuela focuses exclusively on electricity cuts, possibly because it is the most visible consequence.There is almost no reporting on the issues of power quality, despite this issue coming up in numerous stakeholder interviews.Similarly, in the electricity sector there is a tendency for engineers working in protracted crises to simply opt only for interventions that increase capacity, rather than understanding and including broader issues such as power quality.However, as demonstrated in the analysis in Section 4, even if a community is receiving an electricity supply, they are not always able to use it due to issues of voltage and frequency levels, or because their appliances or equipment were damaged by voltage surges.Therefore, in order for populations to receive and make use of an electricity supply, interventions should not only focus only on the continuity of the supply, without also considering power quality.This may require joint thinking on interventions beyond the typical electricity sector.For example, an intervention to support the creation of labour jobs for the maintenance of vegetation under transmission lines would decrease power quality issues while also providing livelihood opportunities to strengthen the local economy.
Similarly in the water sector, when addressing water quality issues in protracted crises, engineers tend to focus more on improving the effectiveness of water treatment plants, rather than also considering the contamination of water resources.This may be because the sources of contamination are often a consequence of other sectors (i.e.solid waste management and mining), and are therefore out of scope for most water engineers.However, by having a more complete understanding of the problem, it may become clear that targeting some of the sources of contamination can be more cost-effective than focusing exclusively on the efficacy of water treatment plants.Again, this requires an interdisciplinary effort to identify appropriate interventions, which may, for example, include the provision of interim solid waste containers to prevent waste from flowing into water channels.
As demonstrated in the above examples, systems mapping enables a more holistic understanding of a problem and encourages thinking beyond typical, non-contextualized, sector-based solutions.By facilitating joint thinking between different disciplines, interventions can be identified that address the problem at multiple levels.

Contributions to systems-thinking approaches for decision-making in complex contexts
The systems map developed during this research aims to build upon existing systems mapping techniques, by integrating functional adaptations to meet the needs of decision-makers operating in complex environments.Some of these adaptations emerged from the development of the systems map during the case study in Venezuela, while others are adopting novel approaches recently developed by MIT and USAID (Blair et al. 2021).As discussed in Section 3.3, these adaptations include adopting a donut structure to depict a system-of-systems, adding functionality and trend statuses to evaluate the health of the system, and building interactive features in the mapping platform to facilitate interrogation and analysis of the full large-scale systems map.
Secondly, the 4Cs Analysis developed during this research (Current State; Causes; Cascading Effects; and Coping Mechanisms) demonstrates how a systems map can be used to conduct a more structured analysis.While the non-linearity of a systems map helps to capture a holistic set of relationships, it can also present challenges in terms of readability.The 4Cs Analysis applies a lens through which to view and analyse one sector in the system-of-systems map, in order to understand how that sector functions and how it is interconnected with other sectors.The structure of the analysis also helps to identify feedback loops from cascading effects and coping mechanisms back to root causes.

Conclusions
This paper demonstrated how a systems mapping approach can be used to analyse essential services in a protracted crisis and explored the value of systems mapping for decision-making in complex contexts.Using primary and secondary data, a system-ofsystems map was developed in Venezuela to depict the interconnections between essential services and their wider context.The systems map was then used to conduct sectoral analyses for the electricity and water sectors, evaluating the current state of each sector (i.e. the dimensions of availability of services), identifying 14 root causes of problems facing the sectors, tracing the cascading effects across other sectors, and identifying coping mechanisms used to fill the service gap.To demonstrate the nuanced understanding that can be extracted from the systems map, two strands of narrative were carried through the analysis, focusing on the quality of public electricity and public water supplies.While these are only two of several narratives, they serve as an example of the systems analysis, with the full analysis results also included in Tables 1-4.The results of the analysis demonstrated the high degree of interconnectedness between sectors.As a result, it is clear that the effects from the protracted crisis reverberate across many parts of the system, and strongly influence the current state of the electricity and water sectors.
The value of using a systems mapping approach was demonstrated by the insights drawn from the analyses.Back tracing casual pathways and forward tracing effect pathways helped to develop a full understanding of how one part of a system interacts with the rest of the system.By using these techniques to develop a more complete understanding of the problems facing the electricity and water sectors in Venezuela, feedback loops and root causes were identified, which helped to challenge assumptions and understand which parts of the system to target and prioritise.This demonstrated how systems mapping can reveal alternative interventions that are rooted in a holistic understanding of a problem (i.e.addressing power quality) rather than opting for conventional, sector-based, or non-contextualized solutions (i.e.additional electricity generation capacity).These insights can help decision-makers to identify and plan more effective, interdisciplinary interventions that build longer-term resilience to the effects of protracted crises.

Future work
The application of systems mapping in protracted crises is particularly relevant to the humanitarian sector, who are often operating in such contexts.Indeed, the research presented in this paper is rooted in a wider research project with the ICRC.Therefore, future work can further develop the applications of systems mapping for humanitarian practitioners, including using the systems map as a tool for communication, monitoring and evaluation, and information management.In addition, future work can consider developing more a standardised systems mapping structure and language that would not only make the maps more accessible to a wider user base but would also allow for easier identification of themes and features.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Breakdown of participants by stakeholder group.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Venezuela essential services system-of-systems map.

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Functionality and trend status formatting for elements.

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Breakdown of the sectoral analyses.

Figure 6 .
Figure 6.Current state of electricity supply services in Venezuela.

Figure 7 .
Figure 7. Extract of Figure 6 sub-map: back tracing the immediate influences that lead to poor quality of the public electricity supply (the quality dimension is emphasised with a light blue circle).

Figure 8 .
Figure 8.Current state of water supply services in Venezuela.

Figure 9 .
Figure 9. Extract of Figure 8 sub-map: back tracing the immediate influences that lead to poor quality of the public water supply (the quality dimension is emphasised with a light blue circle).

Figure 10 .
Figure 10.Root causes of the problems facing the electricity and water sectors.

Figure 11 .
Figure 11.Extract of Figure 10 sub-map: tracing the causal pathways between 'Maintenance of vegetation' and 'Reliability/performance/capacity of public infrastructure'.

Figure 12 .
Figure 12.Extract of Figure 10 sub-map: tracing the causal pathways leading to 'Availability / quality of supply'.

Figure 13 .
Figure 13.Cascading effects and coping mechanisms from the current state of electricity and water sectors

Figure 14 .
Figure 14.Extract of Figure 13 sub-map: tracing the cascading effect pathways from 'Quality of public electricity supply'.

Figure 15 .
Figure 15.Extract of Figure 13 sub-map: tracing the cascading effect pathways from 'Quality of public water supply'.

Table 1 .
Dimensions of availability of public electricity supply.

Table 2 .
Dimensions of availability of public water supply.
CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Table 3 .
Root causes of problems facing the electricity and water sectors.
CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Table 4 .
Cascading effects from the current state of the electricity and water sectors to all other sectors.