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Abstract
Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is within 10 percentage points of that implied by direct questioning. We find little evidence that these estimates are positively biased due to the presence of floor effects. In contrast, our analysis of placebo experiments suggests that there may be a small negative bias due to artificial deflation. We conclude that Putin’s approval ratings largely reflect the attitudes of Russian citizens.
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation grant number SES 13424291, “Voter Mobilization and Electoral Subversion in the Workplace.” We also thank members of the Experimental Politics Workshop at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the 2015 PONARS Policy Conference for comments. Replication materials are available at the Harvard Dataverse, http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZJQZH5.