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Objectives: Measurement of serum biomarkers at disease onset may improve prediction of disease course in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We evaluated the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score and early changes in MBDA score for prediction of 28-joint Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) remission and radiographic progression in the double-blinded OPERA trial.
Method: Treatment-naïve RA patients (N = 180) with moderate or high DAS28 were randomized to methotrexate (MTX) + adalimumab (n = 89) or MTX + placebo (n = 91) in combination with glucocorticoid injection into swollen joints. X-rays of hands and feet were evaluated at months 0 and 12 (n = 164) by the total Sharp van der Heijde score (TSS). The smallest detectable change (1.8 TSS units) defined radiographic progression (∆TSS ≥ 2). Clinical remission (DAS28-CRP < 2.6) was assessed at baseline and 6 months. MBDA score was determined at 0 and 3 months and tested in a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting DAS28 remission at 6 months and radiographic progression at 1 year.
Results: Baseline MBDA score was independently associated with radiographic progression at 1 year [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03/unit, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01–1.06], and changes in MBDA score from baseline to 3 months with clinical remission at 6 months [OR = 0.98/unit, 95% CI 0.96–1.00). In anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody (anti-CCP)-positive patients, 35 of 89 with high MBDA score (> 44) showed radiographic progression (PPV = 39%), compared with 0 of 15 patients (NPV = 100%) with low/moderate MBDA score (≤ 44) (p = 0.003).
Conclusion: Early changes in MBDA score were associated with clinical remission based on DAS28-CRP at 6 months. In anti-CCP-positive patients, a non-high baseline MBDA score (≤ 44) had a clinical value by predicting very low risk of radiographic progression at 12 months.
Acknowledgements
The study was conducted as a research collaboration between Copenhagen Center for Arthritis Research (COPECARE) and Crescendo Bioscience Inc., South San Francisco, USA. The contract was approved by the legal unit in the Capital Region.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Supporting Information
Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online version of this article.
Supplementary Figure S1. Median ∆MBDA score by treatment group.
Supplementary Figure S2. Patients with a decrease in MBDA score from 0–3 months (≤ 20 or > 20) and achievement of DAS28 remission at 6 months.
Supplementary Table S1. Spearman’s correlations of baseline MBDA score and ∆MBDA score versus changes in disease activity measures (CDAI, SDAI, CRP) after 6 and radiographic damage (JSN, ES) after 12 months.
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