Abstract

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management in China has become a serious issue as it poses challenges to environmental quality and sustainable development. To provide reliable references for planning the future MSW management mode and analysing the potential of waste to energy utilization in China, the prediction of future MSW generation quantity in the whole country is necessary and urgent to be well predicted. In this study, the multiple linear regression, a factor-model-based method, is adopted to predict the future MSW generation in China. Urban population, GDP and consumption level of residents are selected as related factors and their correlations with MSW generation quantity are analysed. With the historical data of 1981–2011 from China Statistical Yearbook, the model is established and model accuracy is assessed through two simulation performance criteria. Based on the future prediction of related factors and multiple linear regression method, the annual MSW generation quantity in China till 2030 can be predicted. It shows that the annual MSW generation in China will increase about 2 times in the next 20 years, which indicates considerable environmental pressure as well as waste to energy potential.