ABSTRACT
Extreme heat events induced by climate change present a growing risk to transit passenger comfort and health. To reduce exposure, agencies may consider changes to schedules that reduce headways on heavily trafficked bus routes serving vulnerable populations. This paper develops a schedule optimization model to minimize heat exposure and applies it to local bus services in Phoenix, Arizona, using agent-based simulation to inform travel demand and rider characteristics. Rerouting as little as 10% of a fleet is found to reduce network-wide exposure by as much as 35% when operating at maximum fleet capacity. Outcome improvements are notably characterized by diminishing returns, owing to skewed ridership and the inverse relationship between fleet size and passenger wait time. Access to spare vehicles can also ensure significant reductions in exposure, especially under the most extreme temperatures. Rerouting, therefore, presents a low-cost, adaptable resilience strategy to protect riders from extreme heat exposure.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study were provided by the Maricopa Association of Governments. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data inquiries may be sent to: mag@azmag.gov.
Additional information
Funding
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, under HDBE 1635490, CSSI 1931324, GCR 1934933, and SRN 1444755.
Notes on contributors
Noam Rosenthal
Noam Rosenthal is a PhD student at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. He holds a B.S. in Atmosphere/Energy Engineering and an MS in Earth Systems from Stanford University. Noam’s research focuses on the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure and land use. He is currently a Science Fellow at the Los Angeles Urban Center and previously held fellowships focused on infrastructure finance at the Natural Resources Defense Council and HR&A Advisors.Mikhail Chester
Mikhail Chester is the Director of the Metis Center for Infrastructure and Sustainable Engineering at Arizona State University where he maintains a research program focused on preparing infrastructure and their institutions for the challenges of the coming century. His work spans climate adaptation, disruptive technologies, innovative financing, transitions to agility and flexibility, and modernization of infrastructure management. He is broadly interested in how we need to change infrastructure governance, design, and education for the Anthropocene, an era marked by acceleration and uncertainty. He is co-lead of the Urban Resilience to Extremes research network composed of 19 institutions and 250 researchers across the Americas, focused on developing innovative infrastructure solutions for extreme events.Andrew Fraser
Andrew Fraser is currently a project engineer with the Maricopa Water District in the Phoenix metro area but contributed to this work during his tenure as a Research Assistant Professor in Arizona State University’s School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment. As a research professor he led several studies to understand the impacts of climate change driven extreme events on infrastructure, the services they deliver, and the people who rely on them.David M. Hondula
Dr.David M. Hondula. research focuses on the social and health effects of natural and technological hazards, with an emphasis on extreme heat and power failures. He works closely with local, regional, and state authorities on the development and implementation of plans and programs to make communities safer and more resilient to extreme events. At ASU, Hondula serves on leadership teams for the Urban Climate Research Center and Central Arizona-Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research Program. He is also on the steering committee for the Arizona Extreme Heat Preparedness and Resilience work group, and a faculty affiliate of the Maricopa County Department of Public Health. Hondula is an editorial board member for Environmental Health Perspectives, a field editor for the International Journal of Biometeorology, and a member of the American Meteorological Society’s Board on Environment and Health.David P. Eisenman
Dr.David P. Eisenman, MD, MSHS, is an associate professor at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and has a joint appointment at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health where he directs the Center for Public Health and Disasters. Dr. Eisenman’s primary research interests are in community resilience to disasters, climate change and health, and trauma mental health. He is currently studying the interactions of social and built-environment predictors of heatwave mortality and morbidity, the mortality associated with winter-time extreme heat in Los Angeles, organizational networks in disasters, behavioral responses to wireless emergency alerts, climate change policy in public health, social cohesion and health, wildfires and mental health, and improving treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder in public safety-net clinics. Dr. Eisenman lives and surfs in Marina del Rey, California.Correction Statement
This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.
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