ABSTRACT
Wildfires have grown in number, size and intensity in the American West and forecasts predict worsening trends. Evidence mounts that post-fire debris flows pose a major hazard to infrastructure, particularly roadways. Vulnerabilities of assets to post-fire flows requires consideration of geologic, vegetative, and hydrologic conditions. A model that considers environmental conditions, post-fire effects, and transportation asset use is developed, and applied to a fire prone region in Arizona. 17% of watersheds have a greater than 20% chance of post-fire debris movements and flooding under a minor precipitation event. Additionally, there is a greater than 50% probability of post-fire debris flows where recent fires have occurred, validating the underlying model. The model shows the vulnerability of infrastructure to environmental and technological variables, drawing attention to the need to manage the risk as a broader system.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Additional information
Funding
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [1444755]; National Science Foundation [1934933]; and National Science Foundation [1831475].
Notes on contributors
Andrew M. Fraser
Andrew M. Fraser is currently a project engineer with the Maricopa Water District in the Phoenix metro area but led this work during his tenure as a Research Assistant Professor in Arizona State University’s School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment. As a research professor he led several studies to understand the impacts of climate change driven extreme events on infrastructure, the services they deliver, and the people who rely on them.Mikhail V. Chester
Mikhail V. Chester is the Director of the Metis Center for Infrastructure and Sustainable Engineering at Arizona State University where he maintains a research program focused on preparing infrastructure and their institutions for the challenges of the coming century. His work spans climate adaptation, disruptive technologies, innovative financing, transitions to agility and flexibility, and modernization of infrastructure management. He is broadly interested in how we need to change infrastructure governance, design, and education for the Anthropocene, an era marked by acceleration and uncertainty. He is co-lead of the Urban Resilience to Extremes research network composed of 19 institutions and 250 researchers across the Americas, focused on developing innovative infrastructure solutions for extreme events.B. Shane Underwood
B. Shane Underwood is an Associate Professor in the Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering at North Carolina State University. His research focuses on developing improved pavement systems through experimental mechanical studies of paving materials and through studies to understand the vulnerability of these system’s to climate and technology uncertainties. His work has been published in more than 86 peer reviewed journal papers and he has spoken at various national and international venues on topics related to pavements, paving materials, and infrastructure resilience.
Reprints and Corporate Permissions
Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page
How do I view content?
To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:
Academic Permissions
Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?
Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:
If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1754-9262
![Sample our Urban Studies journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/110826/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Urban-Studies.jpg"})