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Euroconference2014 Budapest Conference Papers

The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

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ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs‏. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.

Acknowledgments

We thank four anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. Many thanks are due in particular to Andy Berg, Catherine Pattillo, and Eduardo Borensztein for sharing their data set and for discussion of the results; Stijn Claessens for advice on the corporate sector and legal indicators; and Ydahlia Metzgen and Scott Brown for their comments and support of this project. We would also like to thank the participants at various seminars and conferences—including at the International Monetary Fund, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the University of Oxford, the University of Birmingham, the University of Porto, the Technical University of Lisbon, the University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, the University of Rennes, and the Budapest University of Technology and Economics—for their comments. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions they are affiliated with. The usual disclaimers apply.

Funding

Roberto Perrelli would like to thank for the support of Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Brazil. Manuel Duarte Rocha acknowledges financial support, through CEF.UP (Center for Economics and Finance at the University of Porto), from the European Regional Development Fund through COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and Portuguese Public Funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) in the framework of the project PEst-C/EGE/UI4105/2011 and PEst-OE/EGE/UI4105/2014.

Additional information

Funding

Roberto Perrelli would like to thank for the support of Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Brazil. Manuel Duarte Rocha acknowledges financial support, through CEF.UP (Center for Economics and Finance at the University of Porto), from the European Regional Development Fund through COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and Portuguese Public Funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) in the framework of the project PEst-C/EGE/UI4105/2011 and PEst-OE/EGE/UI4105/2014.

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