Skip to Main Content
522
Views
75
CrossRef citations to date
Altmetric

Original Articles

Estimation of China's provincial capital stock (1952–2004) with applications

Pages 177-196
Received 05 Jan 2007
Accepted 27 Jan 2008
Published online: 23 Apr 2008
 
Translator disclaimer

Construction of physical capital stock data is a key element for estimating production functions, measuring total factor productivity growth, and for growth accounting. Existing literature, however, shows great variations in the estimates of China's national capital stocks because different methodologies and statistical sources were used. Systematic improvements and adjustments to China's GDP accounting practices have made it possible to produce a consistent and comparable series for provincial level capital stock using the perpetual inventory method (PIM). This article recommends a standardized procedure in constructing the level of capital stock for 30 Chinese provinces from 1952 to 2004. The merit of such statistical construction, although with some drawbacks, is that the series can be easily updated to more recent years using official statistics. Applying our capital stock data, we estimate total factor productivity growth and characterize the spatial pattern across provinces in post-reform China.

Keywords: capital stocktotal factor productivity
JEL Classification: O47

Acknowledgements

This paper is a revisited version of an original paper submitted for the International Workshop on Chinese Productivity held at Tsinghua University in Beijing on 13–14 January, 2007. The author would like to thank the organizer of the workshop. Thanks particularly go to Jinghai Zheng and two anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions. Research assistance from Guiying Wu, Jipeng Zhang, who helped prepare for the initial Chinese version, Xi Zhang, Xueliang Zhang, and Shiyi Chen, who helped update the data, is highly appreciated. Financial support from the Chinese Ministry of Education for key research project (05JJD790076) is gratefully acknowledged.

Notes

Notes

1. These works, among others, include Zhang (1991 Zhang, J. 1991. Systemic analysis of economic efficiency during the 5th Five Year Plan. Jingji Yanjiu Journal of Economic Research, 4 [Google Scholar], 2002 Zhang, J. 2002. Long-run factors explaining growth declining in China. Jingjixue Jikan China Economic Quarterly, 1(2) [Google Scholar]), He (1992 He, J. 1992. Estimation of assets in China. Shuliang Jingji yu Jishu Jingji Yanjiu Studies on Quantitative and Technological Economics, 8 [Google Scholar]), Chow (1993 Chow, GC. 1993. Capital formation and economic growth in China. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114: 24366.  [Google Scholar]), Jefferson et al. (1996 Jefferson, G. 1996. Chinese industrial productivity: trends, measurement issues and recent development. Journal of Comparative Economics, 23: 14689. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Hu and Khan (1997 Hu, Z and Khan, MS. 1997. “Why is China growing so fast?”. In IMF Staff Papers, Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund. Washington.  [Google Scholar]), Wang and Hu (1999 Wang, Shaoguang and Hu, Angang. 1999. The Political Economy of Uneven Development: The Case of China, Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.  [Google Scholar]), Wang and Fan (2000 Wang, X and Fan, G. 2000. Sustainability of Chinese Economy in Chinese, Beijing: Economic Science Press.  [Google Scholar]), Young (2000 Young, A. 2000. Gold into base metals: productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period. NBRE Working Paper W, : 7856 [Google Scholar]), Wang and Yao (2001 Wang, Y and Yao, Y. 2001. Sources of China's economic growth, 1952–99: incorporating human capital accumulation. The World Bank Working Paper [Google Scholar]); Huang (2002), Chow and Li (2002 Chow, GC and Li, KW. 2002. China's economic growth: 1952–2010. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(1): 24756. [Crossref] [Google Scholar]), Song et al. (2003 Song, H, Liu, Z and Jiang, P. 2003. Analysis of determinants of aggregate investment in post-reform China. 1 Shjie Jingji Wenhui (World Economic Papers) [Google Scholar]), Li and Tang (2003 Li, Z and Tang, G. 2003. Capital formation and adjustment of capital stock: analysis of China during transition.. Jingji Yanjiu (Journal of Economic Research), 2 [Google Scholar]), He et al. (2003 He, F, Chen, R and Lin He. 2003. Estimation and correlation analysis of capital stock in China. Jingji Xuejia Economist, 5 [Google Scholar]), Zhang and Zhang (2003 Zhang, J. 2003. Investment, investment efficiency and economic growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 14: 71334.  [Google Scholar]), Zhang et al. (2003 Zhang, J, Shi, S and Chen, S. 2003. Industrial reform and productivity change. Jingjixue Jikan (China Economic Quarterly, 3(1) [Google Scholar]), Li (2003 Li, KW. 2003. China's capital and productivity measurement using financial resources. Center Discussion Paper# 851. 2003, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.  [Google Scholar]), Gong and Xie (2004 Gong, L and Xie, D. 2004. Analysis of factors mobility and variation of marginal productivity in China. Jingji Yanjiu (Journal of Economic Research), 1 [Google Scholar]), Wu (2004 Wu, Yanrui. 2004. China's Economic Growth: A Miracle with Chinese Characteristics, London and New York: Routledge Curzon Press. [Crossref] [Google Scholar], 2007 Wu, Y. 2007. “The role of productivity in China's growth: new estimates”. In Manuscript, Australia: School of Economics and Commerce, University of Western.  [Google Scholar]), Zheng and Hu (2006 Zheng, J and Hu, A. 2006. An empirical analysis of provincial productivity in China, 1979–2001. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 4(3): 22139. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar]), and Holz (2006a Holz, CA. 2006a. New capital estimates for China. China Economic Review, 17(2): 14285. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]).

2. The essence of their method is to carry out a simultaneous determination of both capital stock series and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. In their method, capital stock series is the result of an iterative calculation process by selecting an arbitrary value for the growth rate of TFP.

3. We noticed that there is a debate recently on China's capital stock series between Holz and Chow (Holz, 2006a Holz, CA. 2006a. New capital estimates for China. China Economic Review, 17(2): 14285. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], 2006b; Chow, 2006 Chow, GC. 2006. New capital estimates for China: comments. China Economic Review, 17(2): 18692. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). But this debate is more illustrative than critical, as it clarified a few details in Chinese statistical practice.

4. Wu (2004 Wu, Yanrui. 2004. China's Economic Growth: A Miracle with Chinese Characteristics, London and New York: Routledge Curzon Press. [Crossref] [Google Scholar]) also uses the perpetual inventory method to construct the capital stock series for 30 provinces in China. But the period his estimation covers is between 1900 and 2000. He assumes that the initial value of capital in 1900 was zero and the rate of depreciation for all regions is 7%. In his more recent work he extends his estimation by using different rates of depreciation for different regions (Wu, 2007 Wu, Y. 2007. “The role of productivity in China's growth: new estimates”. In Manuscript, Australia: School of Economics and Commerce, University of Western.  [Google Scholar]).

5. One of the most important statistical sources for studies of the Chinese economy overseas is from Hsueh et al. (1993 Hsueh, Tien-tung, Qiang Li and Shucheng Liu, eds. 1993. China's Provincial Statistics: 1949–1989, Boulder: Westview Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999) in which provincial data were provided. But they also ignored the data in Historic Data of China National Accounting for Gross Domestic Products: 1952–1995, and A Fifty Years Statistical Compendium for New China.

6. Chow (1993 Chow, GC. 1993. Capital formation and economic growth in China. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114: 24366.  [Google Scholar]) took land into account, but we do not in this study.

7. There are primarily three explanations considered for the diminishing efficiency of capital goods with the perpetual inventory method: (1) one-hoss-shay, (2) linear, and (3) diminishing the residual. They correspond to (1) a complete decline of efficiency during the last period of duration, (2) a linear decline of efficiency for each period, and (3) a geometric diminishing of efficiency (Jorgensen, 2001 Jorgensen, Dale. 2001. Productivity (Volume 1), Chinese translation. Beijing: China Development Press.  [Google Scholar]).

8. China began the publication of the annual figure for capital depreciation from 1994 onwards.

9. Therefore, capital accumulation can be classified as either productive or non-productive depending on its final use.

10. Fortunately, the Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai (2001) provides a series of both fixed capital formation and its index, starting from 1952. This dataset makes it possible for us to construct a nationwide implicit deflator for capital goods under certain assumptions.

11. Based on this source, Wang and Yao (2001 Wang, Y and Yao, Y. 2001. Sources of China's economic growth, 1952–99: incorporating human capital accumulation. The World Bank Working Paper [Google Scholar]), He et al. (2003 He, F, Chen, R and Lin He. 2003. Estimation and correlation analysis of capital stock in China. Jingji Xuejia Economist, 5 [Google Scholar]), and Gong and Xie (2004 Gong, L and Xie, D. 2004. Analysis of factors mobility and variation of marginal productivity in China. Jingji Yanjiu (Journal of Economic Research), 1 [Google Scholar]) all constructed the deflator for fixed capital formation between 1952 and 1995.

12. We followed the method by NBS. We compared the resulting deflator for each province during 1991–1995 with those from the Statistical Yearbook of China, and they are almost the same during the same period.

13. We know clearly that this practice may neglect provincial variation in the depreciation rate. But due to the lack of statistics, we have to assume out cross-provincial difference.

14. As Young (2000 Young, A. 2000. Gold into base metals: productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period. NBRE Working Paper W, : 7856 [Google Scholar]) pointed out, if we estimate post-1978 provincial capital stock in China and the base year is 1952, then the time span of 26 years would make the initial level of capital stock insignificant, and therefore it does not matter which method is better.

15. We could easily extend our estimation to the current year of 2005 and 2006. But we did not do so because the national economic census conducted in the year of 2005 could modify the statistics of 2005 and correct some data of both previous years and years after 2005, therefore figures in Table 3 are statistically consistent.

16. Of course, Beijing's rapid accumulation of capital since the mid-1980s, and mid-1990s in particular, was due primarily to its status as China's capital city, and was largely influenced by political considerations. On the contrary, Shanghai was able to raise its capital stock rapidly mainly because of its economic importance to China.

17. The eastern region includes 11 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan. The central region includes 10 provinces: Shanxi, Neimenggu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Guangxi. The western region includes nine provinces: Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Xizang, Shannxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Liaoning and Xinjiang.