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Since China tested a Kinetic-Energy Anti-Satellite (KE-ASAT) weapon in 2007, evidence has surfaced that India may have initiated a similar program. This article makes an anticipatory policy intervention against the development of KE-ASAT weapons. It presents data to show that space debris, and not KE-ASAT weapons, pose the highest risk for the safe operation of Indian satellites. It models a KE-ASAT weapons exchange between India and China in three different scenarios to demonstrate that use of such weapons even on a limited scale would produce an exponential increase in space debris. The latter would threaten the safe operation of satellites for all countries concerned. These data suggest that the concept of deterrence as understood in conventional and nuclear spheres is not easily transportable to the domain of space weapons, which threaten the physical destruction of satellites. If weaponization of space becomes inevitable, policy makers would be better off investing in weapons that disable but do not physically destroy satellites.

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Acknowledgments

 The authors would like to thank Duane Bird (Maj., U.S.AF Space Situational Awareness Officer), for providing them with data from U.S. Strategic Command. In addition, they would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped give this article its final form.

Notes

1. K. Lalitendra, Militarization of Space (New Delhi: KW Publishers, 2010), pp. 53–54.

2. HQ Integrated Defense Staff, Technology Perspective and Capability Road Map, India (Delhi: Ministry of Defense, May 26, 2010).

3. “India Launches First Defense Satellite GSAT_7,” BBC News, August 30, 2013. GSAT-7 is a multiband defense satellite entirely focused for applications as desired by the Indian Navy.

4. K. K. Nair, “Military Space Theories and Doctrines: A Comparative Overview,” Space: The Frontiers of Modern Defense. (New Delhi: Center for Air Power Studies, 2006), pp. 66–87.

5. IANS, “IAF Will be Model for World by 2025: Kalam,” Times of India, March 7, 2007.

6. A. K. Anthony, “Growing Instability In Neighborhood is a Major Security Challenge: Anthony” (address given at the Unified Commanders Conference, New Delhi, June 2008.)

7. Authors Interview with National Security Manager Responsible for Space Policy “A,” 2012.

8. Frederick Stakelback, “2007: A China Space Odyssey,” The FrontPage Magazine, February 23, 2007.

9. “India Readying Weapon to Destroy Enemy Satellites: Saraswat, “ The Indian Express, June 3, 2010.

10. HQ Integrated Defense Staff, Technology Perspective and Capability Road Map, India (Delhi: Ministry of Defense, May 26, 2010), p. 33.

11. Authors Interview with National Security Manager for Space Policy “B,” 2012.

12. It is speculated that China's May 2013 test was part of a program to test new ASAT technologies capable of targeting satellites in GEO orbits. However, the evidnce to support such speculations is limited and ambiguous. See Craig Murray, “China Missile Launch May have Tested Part of A New Anti-Satellite Capability,” U.S.- China Economic and Security Review Commission, May 22, 2013.

13. Data compiled from various sources in the open domain from 2000–2011.

14. Ulrike Bohlmann and Heiner Klinkraad, “Requirements on Space Debris Mitigation for ESA Projects” (presentation by UN COPOUS for the peaceful uses of outer space, Vienna, 2009).

15. Megan Ansdell, “Active Space Debris Removal: Needs, Implications, and Recommendations for Today's Geopolitical Environment,” Journal of Public and International Affairs Vol. 21 (2010), pp. 7–22.

16. The Master 2005 space debris environment model estimate that there are over 20,000 fragments greater than 10 cm, and 600,000 fragments greater than 1 cm in all orbits at May 1, 2005. NASA estimates that the Fengyun breakup and Iridium–Cosmos collision created 5500 fragments greater than 10 cm, and 250,000 fragments greater 1 cm. Since these two breakups are the major debris-creating events in the last five years, the current debris population is then determined.

17. Union of Concerned Scientists, Satellite Database, December 2012.

18. These missions include earth Observation satellites in the area of natural resources, ocean and atmosphere, climate and environment, all weather, and high resolution imaging.

19. Agatha Akers, “To Infinity and Beyond: Orbital Space Debris and How to Clean It Up.” Ph.D. diss., University of La Verne College of Law, 2012.

20. “Update on Three Major Debris Clouds,” Orbital Debris Quarterly News Vol. 14, No. 2 (April, 2010), p. 17.

21. John Timmer, “Saving Fermi: NASA's system for avoiding collisions with space junk,” Ars Technica, May 8 2013, http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/05/saving-fermi-nasas-system-for-avoiding-collisions-with-space-junk.

22. Jer-Chyi Liou, “An Active Debris Removal Parametric Study for LEO Environment Radiation,” Advances in Space Research Vol. 47, No. 1 (June, 2011), pp. 1865–1876.

23. Currently, the global rate of launches into LEO averages 36 launches per annum. Assuming that each launch injects 2 objects into LEO—that is, 1 payload and 1 rocket body—at least 72 new objects are being injected into LEO each year. Taking the natural decay rate of 5 objects per year into consideration, it is estimated that at the current launch rate, 67 new objects remain in orbit in LEO each year.

24. Jer-Chyi Liou, “Options and Challenges for OD Environment Remediation” (presentation at the Canadian Space Agency, St. Hubert, Quebec, July 17, 2012.)

25. Data obtained by the authors from Joint Functional Component Command for Space, United States Strategic Command, September 2012.

26. David Wright, Laura Grego, and Lisbeth Gronlund, “The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual,” American Academy of Arts and Science (2006), pp. 49–66.

27. David Wright, Laura Grego and Lisbeth Gronlund, “The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual,” American Academy of Arts and Science (2006), pp. 49–66.

28. Explained in Note 23.

29. Liou, “An Active Debris Removal“ (see note 22 above), pp. 1865–1876.

30. Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais, “Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt,” Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 83, No. A6 (June 1978), pp. 2637–2646.

31. Nicholas Johnson and Heiner Klinkraad, “Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts” (paper presented at the NASA-DARPA International Conference on Orbital Debris Removal, Chantilly, VA, 2009).

32. Stephen Walt, “A New Paradigm for International Relations: Confusionism,” Foreign Policy, November 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/29/a_new_paradigm_for_international_relations_confusionism.

33. Authors Interview with Indian National Security Manager for Space Policy “C,” 2012.

34. Authors Interview with Indian National Security Manager for Space Policy “C,” 2012.

35. Bharath Gopalaswamy, Space Security: An Indian Perspective in Crux of Asia: China, India and the Emerging Global Order, ed. Ashley Tellis and Sean Mirski (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013), pp. 173–182.

36. Brian Weeden and Thomas Kelso, “Analysis of the Technical Feasibility of Building an International Space Situational Awareness System” (paper presented at the International Astronautical Congress, Daejong, South Korea, October 2009).

37. Wright, Grego and Gronlund, “The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual” (see note 27 above), pp. 117–149.