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China and its Neighbors: Hedging and Counter-Hedging in the Asia-Pacific (I), Guest Editor: Mingjiang Li

How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’ alignment behavior towards China

Abstract

The extant literature on alignment behavior has focused primarily on the macro dimensions, i.e. the typology, manifestations and implications of states’ alignment choices vis-à-vis the great power(s). Relatively few studies have examined the micro aspects of alignment choices. This article attempts to fill in the gap by unpacking the constituent component of weaker states’ alignment decisions, with a focus on ASEAN states’ hedging behavior in the face of a rising China in the post-Cold War era. It contends that the enduring uncertainty at the systemic level has compelled the states to hedge by pursuing contradictory, mutually counteracting transactions of ‘returns-maximizing’ and ‘risk-contingency’ options, which seek to offset the potential drawbacks of one another, as a way to project a non-taking-sides stance while keeping their own fallback position at a time when the prospect of power structure is far from clear.

Acknowledgements

Portions of this article were prepared while the author was a postdoctoral fellow at the Oxford University and Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School. He gratefully thanks Oxford’s DPIR and Nuffield College as well as the Princeton–Harvard ‘China and the World Program’ and Carnegie Fellowship for support and facilities. He also thanks Yuen Foong Khong, Thomas Christensen, Gilbert Rozman, William Tow, Karl Jackson, David Lampton, Francis Fukuyama, Evelyn Goh, Kai He, Xiaoyu Pu, Alastair Iain Johnston, Rosemary Foot, Richard Hu, Su Hao, Wang Dong, Serene Hung and Donald Emmerson for helpful comments and suggestions on initial drafts of the article. He is solely responsible for any errors.

 

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