Skip to Main Content
1,077
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
Altmetric
 
Translator disclaimer

The centenary of the 1916 Rising marks a time of peaceful commemoration, across the island of Ireland. However, several violent dissident republican groups wish to seize it as an opportunity to re-organise in an attempt to bolster and legitimise their sustained paramilitary campaign. This study seeks to provide a greater understanding of how this paramilitary activity has manifested from 2007 to mid-2015. We do this by assessing target selection, through analysis of the Violent Dissident Republican (VDR) events database. The data suggest that civilian targets are the most regularly attacked. However, when exclusively analysing targets of detonated explosives, the data show that police, security personnel, and their infrastructure are more consistently targeted. The target selected can and does have an effect on attack method. These findings can both assist in protecting the potential targets of VDR attacks and contribute to the development of a strong nationalised, and localised, counter VDR narrative.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

John F. Morrison

John F. Morrison is a Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Criminal Justice in the School of Business and Law at the University of East London. His book, The Origins and Rise of Dissident Irish Republicanism (2014), is published with Bloomsbury Press.

John Horgan

John Horgan is Professor of Global Studies and Psychology at Georgia State University. He has over seventy publications on terrorism and political violence.

Notes

Kevin McGuigan, “Murder: Ex-IRA Man Shot Dead in East Belfast,” BBC, August 13, 2015, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33896234 (accessed October 26, 2015).

Ibid.

Sinn Féin Condemns Davison, “‘Revenge’ Killing,” Irish Republican News, August 15, 2015, http://republican-news.org/current/news/2015/08/sinn_fein_condemns_davison_rev.html#.ViuZIdZYalI (accessed October 1, 2015).

Jim Cusack, “Kevin McGuigan Murder Shows that the IRA Is Intact, Armed and Killing,” Belfast Telegraph, August 23, 2015, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/kevin-mcguigan-murder-shows-that-the-ira-is-intact-armed-and-killing-writes-jim-cusack-31471347.html (accessed October 1, 2015).

PSNI and MI5, “Paramilitary Groups in Northern Ireland,” October 19, 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/469548/Paramilitary_Groups_in_Northern_Ireland_-_20_Oct_2015.pdf (accessed October 20, 2015).

Ibid.

Northern Ireland (St. Andrews Agreement) Act 2006, November 22, 2006, http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/53/pdfs/ukpga_20060053_en.pdf (accessed October 18, 2015).

Sophie A. Whiting, Spoiling the Peace? The Threat of Dissident Republicans to Peace in Northern Ireland (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2015), 173–75.

An example of the remnants of this can be seen in the case of the murder of Robert McCartney in 2015 where Gerry Adams called on those with “reservations about assisting the PSNI” to give their information to the McCartney “family, a solicitor, or any other reputable person or body.” Catherine McCartney, Walls of Silence (Dublin: Gill and McMillan, 2007), 24.

Sinn Féin, Freedom (Dublin: Sinn Féin Education Publication, May 1991).

“Attacks on Police Will Go on in New Year'—Real IRA,” Derry Journal, http://www.derryjournal.com/news/attacks-on-police-will-go-on-in-new-year-real-ira-1-2118801 (accessed January 8, 2008; accessed October 2, 2015).

The Independent Commission on Policing for Northern Ireland, A New Beginning: Policing in Northern Ireland, September 1999, http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf (accessed October 26, 2015).

“The Story of the Stephen Carroll Murder Trial,” BBC, March 30, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17220730 (accessed October 9, 2015).

Suzanne Breen, “Former Provos Claim Kerr Murder and Vow More Attacks,” Belfast Telegraph, April 22, 2011, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/former-provos-claim-kerr-murder-and-vow-more-attacks-28610456.html (accessed October 2, 2015).

Police Service of Northern Ireland, Workforce Composition Figures, August 1, 2015, http://www.psni.police.uk/updates_workforce_composition_figures (accessed September 8, 2015).

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Census 2011 Key Statistics Summary Report, September 2014, http://www.nisra.gov.uk/archive/census/2011/results/key-statistics/summary-report.pdf (accessed October 20, 2015).

Henry McDonald, “Belfast Shopping Mall Bomb Plot: Police Arrest Two Men,” The Guardian, December 18, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/18/belfast-shopping-mail-bomb-plot-police-arrest (accessed October 14, 2015).

Andrew Allen was murdered on February 9, 2012 in Co. Donegal; his murder was claimed by RAAD. They justified this by stating that he was a “career criminal.” “RAAD behind Andrew Allen Shooting in Buncrana,” BBC, February 22, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17125572 (accessed October 1, 2015).

Kevin Kearney was found dead from an IRA-claimed shooting on October 9, 2013. He was murdered due to his apparent drug dealing in Belfast. Henry McDonald, “‘New IRA’ Claims it Killed Belfast Father of Four,” The Guardian, October 10, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/10/new-ira-claims-killed-belfast-father (accessed October 2, 2015).

For an in-depth description of the internal workings of the Provisional IRA's Internal Security Group the “Nutting Squad,” see Eamon Collins and Mick McGovern, Killing Rage (London: Granta Books, 1998), 233–44.

For an in-depth discussion of the role of vigilantism within Irish Republicanism, see Heather Hamill, The Hoods: Crime and Punishment in Belfast (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011).

Kieran Doherty, a member of the Real IRA, was murdered by members of his own group. The official reason given was that Doherty had been running a “drugs factory.” “Real IRA: Kieran Doherty Admitted Drugs Link,” Belfast Telegraph, March 2, 2010, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/real-ira-kieran-doherty-admitted-drugs-link-28520896.html (accessed October 2, 2015).

Joe Jones and Eddie Burns were murdered as part of an ongoing dissident feud in March 2007 after they left the CIRA to form a new group. Suzanne Breen, “Republican Community Appalled by Gruesome Murders,” Sunday Tribune, March 18, 2007, http://www.nuzhound.com/articles/Sunday_Tribune/arts2007/mar18_Republicans_appalled_murders__SBreen.php (accessed October 2, 2015).

John F. Morrison, The Origins and Rise of Dissident Irish Republicanism: The Role and Impact of Organizational Splits (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2014).

This group is often referred to as “The New IRA.”

“‘The IRA’ Claim Responsibility for the Murder of David Black,” The Journal.ie, November 12, 2012, http://www.thejournal.ie/the-ira-claim-responsibility-murder-david-black-671949-Nov2012/ (accessed October 4, 2015).

For an in-depth analysis of these splits and mergers see Morrison (see note 24 above), 175–202.

Ibid.

Henry McDonald, “Dissident Republican Terror Attack Highly Likely, Say Northern Ireland Police,” The Guardian, October 1, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/01/dissident-republican-terror-attack-likely-police (accessed October 5, 2015).

Jonathan Owen, “IRA Plans ‘Big Show’ to Mark Easter Rising,” The Independent, February 17, 2013, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/ira-plans-big-show-to-mark-easter-rising-8498150.html (accessed October 26, 2015).

C. J. M. Drake, “The Role of Ideology in Terrorists’ Target Selection,” Terrorism and Political Violence 10, no. 2 (1998): 53–85.

Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2006), 229.

Ronald V. Clarke and Graeme R. Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2006).

Graeme R. Newman and Henda Y. Hsu, “Rational Choice and Terrorist Target Selection,” in Countering Terrorism: Psychosocial Strategies, edited by Updesh Kumar and Manas K. Mandal (New Delhi: Sage India, 2012), 227–49.

Jeff Gruenewald, Kayla Allison-Gruenewald, and Brent R. Klein, “Assessing the Attractiveness and Vulnerability of Eco-Terrorism Targets: A Situational Crime Prevention Approach,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38, no. 6 (2015): 433–55.

Ibid.

Ibid.

See for example Petter Nesser, “Toward an Increasingly Heterogeneous Threat: A Chronology of Jihadist Terrorism in Europe 2008–2013,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 37, no. 5 (2014): 440–56.

John Horgan and John F. Morrison, “Here to Stay? The Rising Threat of Violent Dissident Republicanism in Northern Ireland,” Terrorism and Political Violence 23, no. 4 (2011), 642–69.

This includes all VDR events, not just those that could traditionally be defined as “terrorist” in nature.

John Horgan and Paul Gill, “Who Are the Dissidents? An Introduction to the ICST Violent Dissident Republican Project,” in Dissident Irish Republicanism, edited by P. M. Currie and Max Taylor (New York: Continuum, 2011), 43–64.

There have been five new variables added since the publication of Horgan and Morrison (see note 39 above).

For an in-depth analysis of the personnel data see John Horgan, Divided We Stand: The Strategy and Psychology of Ireland's Dissident Terrorists (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012); Horgan and Morrison (see note 39 above).

See Martyn Frampton, Legion of the Rearguard (Kildare: Irish Academic Press, 2010); Horgan (see note 43 above); Morrison (see note 24 above); Horgan and Morrison (see note 39 above); Whiting (see note 8 above).

See Horgan and Morrison (note 39 above); Horgan (see note 43 above).

Erin M. Kearns, Brendan Conlon, and Joseph K. Young, “Lying about Terrorism,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 37, no. 5 (2014), 422–39.

McDonald, 2013 (see note 19 above).

“Northern Ireland says ‘Yes’ to a Border Poll … But a Firm ‘No’ to United Ireland,” Belfast Telegraph, September 29, 2014, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-says-yes-to-a-border-poll-but-a-firm-no-to-united-ireland-30622987.html (accessed October 26, 2015).

Henry McDonald (see note 29 above).

MI5, Threat Levels, August 29, 2014, https://www.mi5.gov.uk/home/the-threats/terrorism/threat-levels.html (accessed October 1, 2015).

Andrew Silke, “Rebel's Dilemma: The Changing Relationship between the IRA, Sinn Féin and Paramilitary Vigilantism in Northern Ireland,” Terrorism and Political Violence 11, no. 1 (1999): 55–93.

Karen McVeigh, “Is Irish Ban on Legal Highs Driving Markets Underground?” The Guardian, June 30, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/30/risks-of-legal-highs-drive-bereaved-mother-to-campaign-for-uk-ban (accessed October 1, 2015).

“Real IRA Expanding Its Crime Empire in Republic,” Belfast Telegraph, August 16, 2010, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/real-ira-expanding-its-crime-empire-in-republic-28552760.html (accessed October 1, 2015).

Ibid.

“‘Legal High’ Link to Gun Attack,” BBC, January 28, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8484502.stm (accessed October 20, 2015).

“Real IRA Steps Up Campaign against Dealers,” Irish Examiner, April 8, 2010, http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/real-ira-steps-up-campaign-against-dealers-116683.html (accessed October 2, 2015).

“‘Criminal Gang’ Claim Derry Bombs,” BBC, April 19, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8629000.stm (accessed September 8, 2015).

Kent Layne Oots, A Political Organization Approach to Transnational Terrorism (Santa Barbara, CA: Greenwood Press, 1986).

Clarke and Newman (see note 33 above).

Newman and Hsu (see note 34 above).

BBC, “The Story of the Stephen Carroll Murder Trial” (see note 13 above).

Morrison (see note 24 above), 191–93.

Gruenewald et al. (see note 35 above).

Horgan and Morrison (see note 39 above).

Connla Young, “‘IRA’ Threaten Civilians Who ‘Help’ Police,” The Irish News, October 29, 2014, http://www.irishnews.com/news/2014/10/29/news/-ira-threatens-civilians-who-help-police-106555/ (accessed October 5, 2015).

Clarke and Newman (see note 33 above).

 

Related articles

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.