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ORIGINAL ARTICLES

Risk analysis of commitment–option contracts with forecast updates

, &
Pages 415-431
Received 01 Jan 2005
Accepted 01 Aug 2010
Published online: 22 Mar 2011
 

The standard treatment of supply chain models largely focuses on the optimization of the expected value of a given cost or profit measure. Due to highly uncertain supply and demand conditions, the use of the expected objective measure may not be justified. This article studies a class of commitment–option supply contracts in a mean-variance framework. With structure properties established it is shown that a mean-variance trade-off analysis with advanced reservation can be carried out. Moreover, it is indicated how the corresponding contract decisions differ from decisions for optimizing an expected objective value.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the anonymous Associate Editor and referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. In particular, the Associate Editor and two referees provided feedback that helped facilitate Remarks 14 and 20 and Section 6. The second author is partially supported by RGC grant 4187/09.

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