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Original Articles

A Simple Distribution for the Sum of Correlated, Exchangeable Binary Data

Pages 4265-4280
Received 21 Dec 2011
Accepted 22 Aug 2012
Accepted author version posted online: 09 Sep 2013
Published online:30 Sep 2014
 
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This article describes a generalization of the binomial distribution. The closed form probability function for the probability of k successes out of n correlated, exchangeable Bernoulli trials depends on the number of trials and its two parameters: the common success probability and the common correlation. The distribution is derived under the assumption that the common correlation between all pairs of Bernoulli trials remains unchanged conditional on successes in all completed trials. The distribution was developed to model bond defaults but may be suited to biostatistical applications involving clusters of binary data encountered in repeated measurements or toxicity studies of families of organisms. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the distribution are found for a set of binary data from a developmental toxicity study on litters of mice.

Keywords: Correlated Bernoulli trialsMultivariate binary data
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 62H20Seconday 62E15