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Original Articles

The INARCH(1) Model for Overdispersed Time Series of Counts

Pages 1269-1291
Received 05 Jan 2010
Accepted 28 Apr 2010
Published online: 24 Jun 2010
 

The INARCH(1) model for overdispersed time series of counts has a simple structure, a parsimonious parametrization, and a great potential for applications in practice. We analyze two approaches to approximate the marginal process distribution: a Markov chain approach and the Poisson–Charlier expansion. Then approaches for estimating the two model parameters are discussed. We derive explicit expressions for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood and conditional least squares estimators. They are used for constructing simultaneous confidence regions, the finite-sample performance of which is analyzed in a simulation study. A real-data example from economics illustrates the application of the INARCH(1) model.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the three referees for many useful comments on an earlier draft of this article.

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