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ABSTRACT

Experts increasingly highlight the dangers of nuclear-conventional entanglement, particularly in the U.S.-China context. This article develops a framework for assessing entanglement and its risks. Applying that framework to China, it finds that Beijing’s missiles are not as entangled as is sometimes feared, but ongoing trends may increase future entanglement. It also presents evidence that, counter to the prevailing wisdom, Chinese entanglement has not emerged as a strategic policy choice but, rather, as the byproduct of more parochial organizational dynamics. Strategic signaling and perception management will be key to controlling escalation risks stemming from nuclear-conventional entanglement in China.

Acknowledgements

For helpful comments and support, I thank Justin Anderson, Ari C. Anisfeld, Philip Atkinson, Gerald C. Brown, John Chen, Thomas J. Christensen, Christopher F. Chyba, Fiona S. Cunningham, Aaron Friedberg, Sarah Gamberini, Hans M. Kristensen, Scott LaFoy, Lynn Lee, Phillip C. Saunders, Eric Snyder, Mark Stokes, Joel Wuthnow, Tong Zhao, members of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University, and participants in the Princeton University Security Studies Graduate Research Seminar. Research for this article was conducted, in part, while the author was an expert consultant with the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the U.S. National Defense University. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, the U.S. government, or any of the below funders.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Funding

Research for the article was supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Paul and Marcia Wythes Center on Contemporary China, the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, the Center for International Security Studies, and the Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program.

Notes on contributors

David C. Logan

David C. Logan is a Ph.D. candidate in security studies at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs.
 

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