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Original Articles

Strategy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

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ABSTRACT

We argue that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will, in the very near future, have a profound impact on the conduct of strategy and will be disruptive of existing power balances. To do so, we review the psychological foundations of strategy and explore the ways in which AI will impact human decision-making. We then review current and evolving capabilities in ‘narrow’, modular AI that is optimised to perform in a particular environment, and explore its military potential. Lastly, we look ahead to the more distant prospect of a general AI.

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Notes on contributors

Kareem Ayoub

Kareem Ayoub is a Marshall Scholar at the University of Oxford where he is an MD/PhD candidate and researcher in artificial intelligence. His published research spans the use of AI to understand traumatic brain injury, healthy motor control and stroke. He has consulted for various organisations on the use of AI in technical innovation, including the UK Department of Health, the UK Government Office for Science, Nesta and Clear Health Analytics.

Kenneth Payne

Kenneth Payne is a lecturer in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, and a research associate of the Centre of International Studies at the University of Oxford. A political psychologist, he is the author of two books on strategy: The Psychology of Strategy: Exploring Rationality in the Vietnam War (London: Hurst &Co 2015) (New York: Oxford University Press 2015) and The Psychology of Modern Conflict: Evolutionary Theory, Human Nature and a Liberal Approach to War (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan 2015).
 

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