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Articles

The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China's Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations

Pages 447-487
Received 21 May 2012
Accepted 19 Jul 2012
Published online: 29 Aug 2012
 
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Will China's development of a new generation of nuclear weapons impact US-China security relations in important ways? One's answer depends on how one views the following: whether or not Chinese leaders believe that they are only now acquiring a secure second strike capability; the scope of coercive power that secure second strike capability provides to conventionally inferior actors; the meaning of China's ‘No First Use’ Doctrine; and the prospects for escalation control in future crises. Applying Cold War theories and tapping Chinese doctrinal writings this article concludes that China's nuclear modernization program might prove more consequential than is commonly believed.

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Author information

Thomas J. Christensen

A version of this article will appear in James W. Davis, ed., Psychology, Strategy and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations (Oxford: Routledge, forthcoming 2012)

Acknowledgements

For expert research assistance and commentary, the author would like to thank Oriana Mastro. For very helpful comments he would like to thank the anonymous reviewers, Michael Chase, Owen Cote, Andrew Erickson, Taylor Fravel, Charles Glaser, James Goldgeier, Avery Goldstein, Justin Higgins, Robert Jervis, Alastair Iain Johnston, Elizabeth Kier, Jonathan Kirshner, Kier Lieber, Adam Liff, Sean Lynn-Jones, Rose McDermott, Jonathan Mercer, Cynthia Roberts, Thomas Schelling, Randall Schweller, Jack Snyder, Marc Trachtenberg, James Wirtz and especially James Davis, the inspirational organizer, and all the participants in the June 2010 conference in honor of Robert Jervis at Columbia University