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Questions have been raised in recent years about the extent to which the nation is segregated by the political preferences of its electorate. Some have argued that internal migration selects either directly or indirectly on political criteria and thereby produces increasingly one-sided Republican and Democratic neighborhoods. We are among the first to empirically examine voter migration on a large scale. Relying on data for millions of partisan migrants across seven states, we show that partisans relocate based on destination characteristics such as racial composition, income, and population density but additionally prefer to relocate in areas populated with copartisans. This tendency is stronger among Republicans but is also true of Democratic registrants. Whether the role of partisanship is central or ancillary, if it is any part of the decision process it has the potential to make important imprints on the political landscape of the United States.

近年来兴起有关国家被选民政治倾向分裂程度的问题。部分学者主张, 国家内部的迁徙会直接或间接地挑选政治准则, 因而逐渐产生全面倾向共和党或民主党的邻里社区。对选民迁徙进行大尺度的经验研究方面, 我们是先驱之一。我们倚赖横跨七州的数百万政党支持者之迁徙资料, 显示政党支持者乔迁新居时, 会基于目的地的特征如种族组成、收入与人口密度等考量, 但亦将进一步倾向落脚于支持同一政党者群聚的区域。此一倾向对共和党支持者而言较为显著, 但对民主党支持者而言亦是如此。不论支持特定政党扮演着核心或从属的角色, 若它是决策过程的一部分, 便具有对美国政治地景产生重要影响的潜力。

Desde no hace mucho, se cuestiona la amplitud con la que se ha segregado la nación por las preferencias políticas de su electorado. Hay quienes sostienen que la migración interna selecciona de manera directa o indirecta los criterios políticos, produciendo así vecindarios en donde cada vez más predominan o los republicanos, o los demócratas. Nosotros figuramos entre los primeros en examinar empíricamente la migración de votantes a gran escala. A partir de los datos sobre millones de miembros de partidos políticos que migran a través de sietes estados, mostramos que su relocalización se basa en algunas características del lugar de destino, tales como la composición racial, el ingreso y la densidad de población, pero notando que adicionalmente ellos prefieren reubicarse en áreas pobladas por copartidarios. Esta tendencia es más fuerte entre los republicanos, aunque también ocurre entre quienes se registran como demócratas. Así sea que el papel de la afiliación partidista sea central o secundario, en cuanto hace parte del proceso de decisión tiene el potencial para marcar de manera significativa el mapa político de los Estados Unidos.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to Soren Thomsen, Kasper Hansen, Yosef Bhatti, Bernard Grofman Jasjeet Sekhon, Sean Gailmard, George Judge, Laura Stoker, Rodney Hero, Eric Schickler, and participants in the DC-area American Politics Workshop for helpful comments.

Notes

1. McDonald (2011 McDonald, I. 2011. Migration and sorting in the American electorate: Evidence from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. American Politics Research, 39(3): 51233. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) finds support for this idea at the level of congressional districts with survey evidence that movers' destinations are a closer ideological match to their own preferences than their place of origin.

2. At this point a question arises as to whether we should evaluate individual movement or household movement, because many voters move together with family members (e.g., spouses, adult children), as a part of a household unit, not as individuals, suggesting clustering or dependence across individual observations. But after estimating alternative models, it quickly became clear that with the large number of cases in this research there was no substantively significant difference in estimates resulting from using households as observations or from clustering standard errors by household. We therefore present straightforward models of individual movement, although the alternatives are available.

3. ZIP codes appear to be good proxies for neighborhoods. They are geographically compact for purposes of mail delivery, and they are typically constructed at the appropriate scale at which a socioeconomic or political environment might be evaluated by someone looking to relocate. ZIP codes are similar in size to census tracts, which sociologists have long used to measure residential poverty, concentration, and segregation (Jencks and Mayer 1990 Jencks, C. and Mayer, S. E. 1990. “The social consequences of growing up in a poor neighborhood”. In Inner-city poverty in the United States, Edited by: Lynn, L. E. Jr and McGeary, M. 11186. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.  [Google Scholar]; Massey and Denton 1993 Massey, D. S. and Denton, N. 1993. American apartheid: Segregation and the making of the underclass., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]). ZIP code data are also commonly reported on the Web sites of realtors and in real estate marketing efforts, suggesting that they are sometimes directly relevant to relocation decisions.

4. The principal exception is New Jersey, where a peculiar registration law encourages voters to register as unaffiliated but then declare a political party once they vote in their first primary election.

5. Our model includes an intercept (that can vary by ZIP code and state), coefficients for the Level 1 independent variables, and a stochastic term (, where the indexes i, j, and k denote individuals, ZIP codes, and states, respectively).

6. These types of party switches are more common than one might think largely because individuals do not commonly reregister with a different party at their place of residence if their official registration does not preclude them from casting a ballot for the candidate of their choice. Migrating and the necessity to reregister, however, lessens the cost of registering with their favored party or new allegiance. In this way, migration offers a voter an opportunity to reveal updated and more true party preferences that have evolved over time.