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How many people have to die over a type II error?
- DOI:
- 10.1080/14639220902853096
pages 387-401
Available online: 29 May 2009Abstract
Although much concern over type I errors has permeated psychology for decades, there is less concern over type II errors. In fact, type II errors constitute a serious problem in safety research that can result in accidents and fatalities because researchers fail to reject the null hypothesis due to arbitrary probability thresholds. The purpose of this paper is to reveal how often type II errors occur and the effect they have on applied ergonomics research. Computer simulations using population parameters were generated, revealing that type II errors happen quite often, particularly with effect sizes between 0.2 and 1.2. A utility analysis also reveals that the cost of type II errors on society is much greater than it needs to be. Solutions for avoiding type II errors are discussed.
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- Available online: 29 May 2009
Author affiliations
- a New Mexico State University, PO Box 30001, Las Cruces, NM 88003–8001, USA
Author biographies
Stephen Rice is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at New Mexico State University. His main areas of interest are automation, disaster warning systems, and aviation psychology.
David Trafimow is a Professor of Psychology at New Mexico State University. His main areas of interest are in social cognition, philosophy of science, and methodology.
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