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Original Articles Do Targeted Assassinations Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel's Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising 1
Do Targeted Assassinations Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel's Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising 1 The datasets utilized by the authors in this article can be made available to any interested party through a written request to: Mohammed M. Hafez, University of Missouri in Kansas City, Department of Political Science, 213 Haag Hall, 5100 Rockhill Road, Kansas City, MO 64110. View all notes
The datasets utilized by the authors in this article can be made available to any interested party through a written request to: Mohammed M. Hafez, University of Missouri in Kansas City, Department of Political Science, 213 Haag Hall, 5100 Rockhill Road, Kansas City, MO 64110. View all notes
- DOI:
- 10.1080/10576100600641972
pages 359-382
- Received: 15 Aug 2005
- Accepted: 24 Aug 2005
- Published online: 22 Sep 2006
Abstract
We assess the impact of Israel's targeted assassinations policy on rates of Palestinian violence from September 2000, the beginning of Al-Aqsa uprising, through June 2004. Literature concerning the relationship between repression and rebellion suggests four plausible effects of targeted assassinations on insurgents: deterrence, backlash, disruption, and incapacitation. Using differenced and lagged time-series analysis, this article utilizes multiple and logistic regression to evaluate the effect of targeted assassinations on Palestinian violence. It is concluded that targeted assassinations have no significant impact on rates of Palestinian attacks. Targeted assassinations do not decrease rates of Palestinian violence, nor do they increase them, whether in the short or long run. Targeted assassinations may be useful as a political tool to signal a state's determination to punish terrorists and placate an angry public, but there is little evidence that they actually impact the course of an insurgency.
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- Citation information:
- Received: 15 Aug 2005
- Accepted: 24 Aug 2005
- Published online: 22 Sep 2006
Author affiliations
- a Department of Political Science , University of Missouri—Kansas City , Kansas City, Missouri, USA
- b University of Missouri—Kansas City , Kansas City, Missouri, USA
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