A simple method for calculating the likelihood of crop damage by primates: an epidemiological approach

Human–wildlife conflict, specifically crop raiding by wildlife, is an increasing concern. Primates are a particular problem across much of Africa and Asia, especially for rural, subsistence farmers living and farming at the forest edge. Most methods designed for sampling and extrapolating from primate crop damage in a subsistence farming context require extensive data collection and involve considerable expenditure of time to complete data analysis. Using a standard epidemiological model, we predict the relative risk of primate crop raiding based on crops grown, their availability within individual farms and patterns of primate selectivity. The model produces an index of relative risk of crop raiding by primates within a geographical region. It rapidly ranks farms according to their vulnerability to crop raiding, with limited need for in-depth data collection. It will therefore allow a more effective deployment of protection methods and more pro-active targeting of resources. This method of modelling primate crop damage can be taught to local communities rapidly and easily. Although not designed to replace existing methods, it can run effectively in conjunction with them.

Keywords

• primate,
• conservation,
• crop raiding,
• epidemiological modelling,
• human-wildlife conflict,
• risk,
• Sulawesi