Analysis of yield variability in winter wheat due to temporal variability, and nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization

Field average based recommendations have been a common practice for recommending the major crop nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The problem is yield will not be the same from year to year with application of the same amount of recommended rate of fertilizer. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate how recommendations generated using nutrient response experiments were dynamic; and to assess the relative contribution of temporal variability, N and P fertilizers on winter wheat grain yield and N concentration. Twelve factorial combinations of four N (0, 56, 112, and 168 kg ha⁻¹) and three P (0, 14.5, and 29 kg P ha⁻¹) rates were evaluated in a randomized complete block design with three replications at Perkins, Oklahoma. To address the first objective, ANOVA and orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used. To address the second objective, a ten predictor variable multiple linear regression model with two quantitative variables and their interaction (N, P and N×P) and seven-year variables was evaluated and a reduced model containing seven variables was generated. Wheat grain yield showed three distinct responses to N rates: Linear, quadratic and no response. These individual year data show that it is not always appropriate to use results of nutrient response experiments to estimate next year's N fertilizer requirement due to apparent temporal variability in the results. Wheat only responded to P during the first two years of the study. The reduced model from the regression analysis revealed that most of the variability in grain yield was accounted for by five individual indicator years and N only. High variability across years in grain yield and fertilizer (N and P) response, even between years of similar grain yield, is an indication of a given season's production dependence on factors other than N and P.

Keywords

• Winter wheat,
• temporal variability,
• nitrogen,
• phosphorus