Don't Predict the Future–Direct it! Comments on the intellectual history, the Logical and Applicative Visibility, and the Underlying Assumptions of Directed Evolution (DE)

This article introduces an applied Theory of Evolution of Artificial Systems, called Directed Evolution (DE). The theory is grounded in fifty years of research on Inventive Engineering known as TRIZ, which started in the former Soviet Union by G. Altshuller and continues today. The theory has generated a set of Patterns and Lines of Evolution that represent a compilation of trends that document strong, historically recurring tendencies in the development of manmade systems in general and technological systems in particular. Directed Evolution is the systematic applied-oriented process for “predicting” future generations of a system by inventing them along these evolutionary patterns. The current article introduces the theory, reflects on its basic underlying logic, and provides a broad historical context and intellectual justification for such an effort. It shows that the quest of DE theory and practice falls well within the boundaries of past pursuits to identify evolutionary patterns of complex systems and to use these patterns to control and manipulate possible futures of artificial systems.

KEYWORDS

• Cultural evolution,
• design,
• Directed Evolution (DE),
• evolutionary patterns,
• Future studies,
• innovation management,
• technological forecasting,
• technological foresight,
• TRIZ