Parsing Pyongyang's Strategy

Observers have attributed the long-term crisis between North Korea and its adversaries America, South Korea and Japan, which has reached a new high point with two recent nuclear weapons tests, to various explanations. One is that the regime is simply irrational. Another is that Kim Jong Il requires a constant state of near-war to maintain domestic support for his leadership. More plausible, however, is the theory that provocative behaviour serves two basic North Korean goals: deterring an attack by its much stronger potential enemies and increasing Pyongyang's leverage for demanding payments and concessions. This assessment, nevertheless, does not rule out the possibility of North Korea and its adversaries achieving a rapprochement. Failure to achieve such a breakthrough in the past does not necessarily indicate insurmountable bad faith on the part of North Korea, but rather the difficulty of overcoming stringent domestic political constraints and suspicions on both sides.