Numerous authors (e.g., Popper, 1959) argue that scientists should try to falsify rather than confirm theories. However, recent empirical work (Wason and Johnson-Laird, 1972) suggests the existence of a confirmation bias, at least on abstract problems. Using a more realistic, computer controlled environment modeled after a real research setting, subjects in this study first formulated hypotheses about the laws governing events occurring in the environment. They then chose between pairs of environments in which they could: (I) make observations which would probably confirm these hypotheses, or (2) test alternative hypotheses. Strong evidence for a confirmation bias involving failure to choose environments allowing tests of alternative hypotheses was found. However, when subjects did obtain explicit falsifying information, they used this information to reject incorrect hypotheses.
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Original Articles
Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference
Clifford R. Mynatt Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A. , Michael E. Doherty Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A. & Ryan D. Tweney Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A.
Pages 85-95
Received 30 Jan 1976
Published online: 29 May 2007
Original Articles
Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference
Clifford R. Mynatt Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A. , Michael E. Doherty Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A. & Ryan D. Tweney Psychology Department , Bowling Green State University , Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, U.S.A.